An independent sports-statistics project — built on calibration, not hype.

We turn 128 historical World Cup matches (2018 + 2022) and a transparent set of contextual adjustments into projected totals and probabilities for the 72 matches of World Cup 2026. Every projection carries a confidence rating — High, Medium or Low — and every market hub explains the historical reliability behind it.

We do not publish picks, recommendations or anything framed as advice to act. We do not optimise for "winners"; we optimise for calibration. When we say 65%, we want roughly 65 of every 100 such calls to land. Our reliability rankings and post-matchday reviews exist so you can hold us to that.

• Confidence is visible. Low-confidence numbers are tagged Low. We will not hide a weak signal behind a confident-sounding sentence.
• Limitations are stated. The sample is two tournaments. The 48-team format is brand new. Heat and altitude effects are modelled, not proven. In those cases we lower confidence — we do not guess louder.
• The record is public. After each matchday we will publish what we projected versus what actually happened, on Insights.

Fans, statistics enthusiasts, traveling supporters and office-pool players who want a clear-eyed read on a match — not a slogan. If you read our methodology and disagree with our adjustments, good — that is the point of publishing them.