An independent data-modeling project — methodology first, accountability public.

One model, one transparent methodology, one public record. Every projection on the site is generated from the same calibrated pipeline described in our methodology. No human override sneaks in to "make a number look better".

The honest answer is that personalities should not move a projection. A small independent project that fabricates a roster of "expert analysts" with stock-photo head-shots is doing the opposite of trustworthy. We would rather publish the maths and the misses.

• Projected-vs-actual reviews. After every matchday of World Cup 2026 a review is published on Insights: what we projected, what landed, where the model was off, why.
• Live reliability rankings. The reliability ladder on /stats updates as new evidence accumulates. A market that drifts will be downgraded in public.
• No quiet rewrites. Projections, once published, are not silently edited. Corrections are stamped on the page and noted in the next matchday review.

• No claim is published without a confidence rating.
• No projection is framed as advice, a recommendation, or a "lock".
• Limitations are stated on the same page as the number they affect.
• External sources, when referenced, are linked in plain text — not laundered through anonymous "expert" quotes.

Methodology questions, corrections and data partnership enquiries are welcome via /contact. Press enquiries: same form, mark them PRESS in the message.