Most Reliable Statistical Markets

Ranked by historical reliability — hit-rate across the 2018 + 2022 World Cups.

• #1

  Fouls

  Standard line o18.5

  Very stable. Combative matchups push higher.

  10.0 pts

  Consistency gap
• #2

  Throw-ins

  Standard line o33.5

  MOST consistent market (2pt gap). Lightly-watched = softer lines. Best edge.

  2.0 pts

  Consistency gap
• #3

  Goals

  Standard line o1.5

  Stable. o0.5 is ~94% (even safer).

  2.0 pts

  Consistency gap
• #4

  Corners

  Standard line o7.5

  Stable but climate-sensitive (tempo market).

  9.0 pts

  Consistency gap
• #5

  Shots on Target

  Standard line o6.5

  Stable but lower base rate. Climate-sensitive (tempo market).

  1.0 pts

  Consistency gap
• #6

  Goals

  Standard line o0.5

  Safest line; individual to-score via Poisson

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  Consistency gap