Shots on Target — World Cup 2026 Statistical Hub
72
Matches Projected
66%
Historical Reliability
#7 of 6
Reliability Rank
1pt
Tournament Gap
The market
Stable but lower base rate. Climate-sensitive (tempo market).
Historical reliability
66%
at standard line o6.5
2018 World Cup67%
2022 World Cup66%
128 matches · 2018+2022·Standard line: o6.5·Rank #7 of 6·1pt tournament gap
Top 5
Highest-probability fixtures
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All 72 fixtures
Ranked by shots on target probability
Sort
Confidence
#1
Francevs
Senegal96%
11.6 o6.5
High
#2
Norwayvs
Senegal92%
10.5 o6.5
High
#3
Englandvs
Croatia91%
10.3 o6.5
High
#4
Norwayvs
France91%
10.4 o6.5
High
#5
New Zealandvs
Belgium89%
10 o6.5
Medium
#6
Colombiavs
Portugal89%
10 o6.5
Medium
#7
Germanyvs
Curaçao88%
9.9 o6.5
Medium
#8
Panamavs
Croatia88%
9.9 o6.5
High
#9
Belgiumvs
Egypt87%
9.8 o6.5
High
#10
Panamavs
England87%
9.8 o6.5
High
#11
Argentinavs
Austria86%
9.6 o6.5
High
#12
Brazilvs
Morocco84%
9.3 o6.5
High
#13
Spainvs
Cabo Verde84%
9.4 o6.5
Medium
#14
Germanyvs
Côte d'Ivoire83%
9.3 o6.5
High
#15
Scotlandvs
Brazil82%
9.2 o6.5
Medium
#16
Jordanvs
Argentina81%
9.1 o6.5
Medium
#17
Netherlandsvs
Japan80%
8.9 o6.5
High
#18
Austriavs
Jordan80%
9 o6.5
High
#19
Scotlandvs
Morocco80%
8.9 o6.5
High
#20
Türkiyevs
USA79%
8.8 o6.5
High
#21
Belgiumvs
Iran78%
8.7 o6.5
High
#22
Spainvs
Saudi Arabia78%
8.7 o6.5
Medium
#23
Ecuadorvs
Germany78%
8.7 o6.5
High
#24
Switzerlandvs
Bosnia & Herzegovina77%
8.6 o6.5
High
#25
Portugalvs
Uzbekistan77%
8.6 o6.5
High
#26
Portugalvs
DR Congo76%
8.5 o6.5
High
#27
Uruguayvs
Spain76%
8.5 o6.5
Low
#28
Haitivs
Scotland73%
8.3 o6.5
High
#29
Argentinavs
Algeria73%
8.3 o6.5
Medium
#30
Brazilvs
Haiti73%
8.3 o6.5
Low
#31
Senegalvs
Iraq73%
8.3 o6.5
High
#32
Algeriavs
Austria72%
8.2 o6.5
Medium
#33
Czechiavs
South Africa70%
8 o6.5
High
#34
Jordanvs
Algeria70%
8 o6.5
High
#35
Moroccovs
Haiti70%
8 o6.5
Medium
#36
Canadavs
Bosnia & Herzegovina68%
7.9 o6.5
High
#37
Netherlandsvs
Sweden67%
7.8 o6.5
High
#38
Francevs
Iraq67%
7.8 o6.5
Low
#39
Mexicovs
South Africa66%
7.7 o6.5
Medium
#40
Uzbekistanvs
Colombia64%
7.5 o6.5
Medium
#41
USAvs
Paraguay63%
7.4 o6.5
High
#42
Switzerlandvs
Canada63%
7.5 o6.5
High
#43
South Africavs
South Korea62%
7.4 o6.5
Medium
#44
Curaçaovs
Côte d'Ivoire62%
7.4 o6.5
Medium
#45
Tunisiavs
Netherlands62%
7.4 o6.5
Medium
#46
Türkiyevs
Paraguay61%
7.3 o6.5
High
#47
Colombiavs
DR Congo61%
7.3 o6.5
Low
#48
Czechiavs
Mexico58%
7.1 o6.5
Medium
#49
Iraqvs
Norway57%
7 o6.5
High
#50
USAvs
Australia57%
7 o6.5
High
#51
Bosnia & Herzegovinavs
Qatar57%
7 o6.5
High
#52
Australiavs
Türkiye56%
7 o6.5
High
#53
Englandvs
Ghana56%
6.9 o6.5
Medium
#54
Japanvs
Sweden56%
7 o6.5
High
#55
Ecuadorvs
Curaçao55%
6.8 o6.5
Medium
#56
Mexicovs
South Korea54%
6.8 o6.5
Low
#57
South Koreavs
Czechia53%
6.7 o6.5
Low
#58
Qatarvs
Switzerland52%
6.6 o6.5
High
#59
Croatiavs
Ghana52%
6.7 o6.5
Medium
#60
Tunisiavs
Japan51%
6.6 o6.5
Medium
#61
Ghanavs
Panama50%
6.5 o6.5
High
#62
Côte d'Ivoirevs
Ecuador47%
6.2 o6.5
Medium
#63
DR Congovs
Uzbekistan42%
5.9 o6.5
High
#64
Canadavs
Qatar41%
5.9 o6.5
High
#65
New Zealandvs
Egypt39%
5.7 o6.5
High
#66
Swedenvs
Tunisia37%
5.5 o6.5
Medium
#67
Paraguayvs
Australia37%
5.6 o6.5
High
#68
Iranvs
New Zealand26%
4.6 o6.5
High
#69
Uruguayvs
Cabo Verde25%
4.5 o6.5
Medium
#70
Egyptvs
Iran24%
4.4 o6.5
High
#71
Cabo Verdevs
Saudi Arabia23%
4.4 o6.5
High
#72
Saudi Arabiavs
Uruguay19%
3.9 o6.5
Medium
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