Total Throw-ins
37.4throw-ins
Over 33.5
66%
Adjustment: possession-dom +1.0; mismatch +0.8
Per-team splits
Argentina
16.6throw-ins
57% probability
Algeria
20.8throw-ins
81% probability
Argentina 3–0 
AlgeriaFT
Played 2026-06-16 · Arrowhead · Kansas City, USA
Venue
Arrowhead
Kansas City, USA
Result Verdict
Projected vs actual
Six markets, scored honestly. Hits in Pitch-Green; misses stay calm.
Market
Projected
Prob
Actual
Verdict
Total Throw-inso33.5
37.4
66%
31
Miss
Total Foulso18.5
31.4
97%
21
Hit
Total Cornerso7.5
8.6
63%
4
Miss
Shots on Targeto6.5
8.3
73%
6
Miss
Total Goals (1.5+)o1.5
2.7
76%
3
Hit
Total Goals (0.5+)o0.5
2.7
90%
3
Hit
Exclusive
Statistical Projections
Six markets, modeled per match. Confidence ratings shown openly.
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Matchup Profile
What shapes the numbers
Strength mismatch
HIGH
Possession-dominant side present
Throw-in counts trend higher
HEAT downgrade
DOWNGRADE tempo overs
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Full projections for all 72 matches
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