Total Fouls
Mexico vs 
South Africa
The projection
Total Fouls — in depth
Projected total
26.4fouls
Threshold: Over 18.5
Probability
87%
Medium confidenceAdjustment: mismatch +1.0
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Intelligence brief
Historical reliability
How often this market resolved over its standard threshold in past World Cups — descriptive statistics, not a recommendation.
2018 + 2022 combined
89%
Resolved over the o18.5 threshold in 89% of 2018 + 2022 World Cup matches.
201894%
202284%
10pt gap
between tournaments
Sample size
128 matches
2018 + 2022
Threshold
o18.5
Reliability rank
#2
Very stable. Combative matchups push higher.
Per-team breakdown
How total fouls splits between sides
Mexico
13.3fouls
79% probability
Breakeven rate: 1.27%
South Africa
13.1fouls
78% probability
Breakeven rate: 1.28%
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Across the tournament
Other matches with notable total fouls lines
Reader sentiment
Which side do you think trends higher on total fouls?
Statistics-framed reader poll. Tap a side to see the running split.
MatchdaySync provides sports statistics and analytics for information only — not advice.