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Osasuna v Sevilla, La Liga, Sun, 28 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 26. Sun, 28 Feb 2027

OsasunaHome
vKick-off 19:00 UTC
SevillaAway
WLLLDLeague form, oldest to newestLDWWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

El Sadar Stadium. Photo: Visma17, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Osasuna have 4 scored home results and Sevilla 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Osasuna at home: 1.25 points per match (4 measured matches); Sevilla away: 2.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Osasuna scored 0.50 per home match (4 measured matches); Sevilla scored 1.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.50 per club appearance across 146 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 7 pooled club appearances (42.9%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Osasuna: 4 wins; Sevilla: 2 wins; draws: 4.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match.

Osasuna

xG 1.24
  • Shots per match9.4
  • On target per match3.9
  • Goals per match0.9

Sevilla

xG 0.88
  • Shots per match11.0
  • On target per match4.1
  • Goals per match1.4

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 73 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Osasuna
0.83
Expected goals, Sevilla
1.53
Most likely score
0-1 (14%)
Three or more goals
42%
Both clubs score
44%
Osasuna score at least once
56%
Sevilla score at least once
78%
Season sample
7 and 7 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Osasuna win–
Draw–
Sevilla win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Osasuna goals, columns are Sevilla goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
09%14%11%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%
18%12%9%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
23%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.70 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Osasuna 7 matches, Sevilla 7, the league 73, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 17 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 73 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.0%24.0%
2.556.0%44.0%
3.537.3%62.7%
4.522.7%77.3%

First-half goals · 73 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.7%33.3%
1.546.7%53.3%
2.517.3%82.7%
3.56.7%93.3%

Corners · 69 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.550.7%49.3%
9.549.3%50.7%
10.539.4%60.6%

Yellow + red card events · 69 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.8%4.2%
1.587.3%12.7%
2.576.1%23.9%
3.562.0%38.0%
4.547.9%52.1%
5.533.8%66.2%
6.514.1%85.9%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Osasuna wins
4
Draws
2
Sevilla wins
Goals / meeting
1.90
19 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Osasuna clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Sevilla clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
8.00
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
5.10
10 with card data
  1. Osasuna v SevillaSun, 26 Apr 2026 · La Liga 2025-262–1HT 0–0
  2. Sevilla v OsasunaSat, 8 Nov 2025 · La Liga 2025-261–0HT 0–0
  3. Osasuna v SevillaThu, 24 Apr 2025 · La Liga 2024-251–0HT 1–0
  4. Sevilla v OsasunaMon, 2 Dec 2024 · La Liga 2024-251–1HT 0–0
  5. Sevilla v OsasunaSun, 28 Jan 2024 · La Liga 2023-241–1HT 1–0
  6. Osasuna v SevillaSat, 23 Sept 2023 · La Liga 2023-240–0HT 0–0
  7. Sevilla v OsasunaSun, 26 Feb 2023 · La Liga 2022-232–3HT 0–1
  8. Osasuna v SevillaFri, 12 Aug 2022 · La Liga 2022-232–1HT 1–1
  9. Osasuna v SevillaSat, 5 Feb 2022 · La Liga 2021-220–0HT 0–0
  10. Sevilla v OsasunaSat, 30 Oct 2021 · La Liga 2021-222–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
OsasunaLWLLDW
SevillaLWLWLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
  • 57%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 93%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 71%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 36%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 37%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 7%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 22%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 2.7
    Avg total goals
    League 3.00
    7 + 7 matches
  • 71%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 67%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 29%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 47%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 7.2
    Corners per match
    League 9.65
    7 + 7 matches
  • 21%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 51%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 21%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 49%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 14%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 39%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 4.8
    Cards per match
    League 4.29
    7 + 7 matches
  • 57%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 62%
    7 + 7 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 48%
    7 + 7 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
OsasunaSevilla
14Position5
WLLLDLast 5, oldest to newestLDWWL
7Played7
1.14Points per match1.86
29%Win %57%
0.86Scored / match1.43
1.86Conceded / match1.29
2.71Avg total goals2.71
43%Both scored71%
29%Clean sheets29%
43%Failed to score0%
1.24xG for0.88
1.39xG against1.26

Half by half

OsasunaSevilla
  • 0.291st half scored / match0.29
  • 0.861st half conceded / match0.71
  • 0.572nd half scored / match1.14
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.57
  • 29%Leading at half-time14%
  • 86%1st half over 0.557%
  • 29%1st half over 1.529%
  • 57%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 43%2nd half over 1.557%
  • 0%Scored in both halves14%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Both clubs, every match this season.

Goals

OsasunaSevilla
  • 0.86Scored / match1.43
  • 1.86Conceded / match1.29
  • 2.71Match total / match2.71
  • 57%Scored 1+100%
  • 29%Scored 2+29%
  • 71%Conceded 1+71%
  • 43%Conceded 2+29%
  • 71%Match over 1.571%
  • 43%Match over 2.557%
  • 29%Match over 3.543%

Shots and xG

OsasunaSevilla
  • 9.43Shots for11.00
  • 12.86Shots against11.29
  • 3.86On target for4.14
  • 3.86On target against4.14
  • 9%Shot conversion13%
  • 1.24xG for0.88
  • 1.39xG against1.26

Corners

OsasunaSevilla
  • 3.00Corners for3.29
  • 4.57Corners against3.57
  • 7.57Match total6.86
  • 57%Over 7.543%
  • 14%Over 8.529%
  • 14%Over 9.529%
  • 14%Over 10.514%
  • 14%Over 11.514%

Cards

OsasunaSevilla
  • 2.43Cards for3.14
  • 1.86Cards against2.14
  • 4.29Match total5.29
  • 86%Over 2.586%
  • 43%Over 3.571%
  • 43%Over 4.557%
  • 14%Over 5.557%
  • 14.00Fouls committed14.43

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
3Real Madrid81118
4Betis7216
5Sevilla7113
6Alaves8411
7La Coruna7210
12Vallecano7-58
13Getafe8-68
14Osasuna7-78
15Celta727
16Santander7-107
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for La Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.