· Matchday 8
Ipswich v Nott'm Forest
Expected goals 1.14 to 1.01 · most likely 1-1 (13%) · from 6 and 5 matches
Goal, corner and card probabilities
Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 4 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.
Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.
Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 2.5 | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| 3.5 | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| 4.5 | 20.7% | 79.3% |
First-half goals · 56 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| 1.5 | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| 2.5 | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| 3.5 | 6.9% | 93.1% |
Corners · 50 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 9.5 | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| 10.5 | 36.5% | 63.5% |
Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 96.2% | 3.8% |
| 1.5 | 88.5% | 11.5% |
| 2.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 3.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| 4.5 | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| 5.5 | 21.2% | 78.8% |
| 6.5 | 7.7% | 92.3% |
Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.