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MatchDaySync

SC Covilhã v Louletano DC, Liga 3, Sat, 30 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 18. Sat, 30 Jan 2027

SC CovilhãHome
vKick-off 18:00 UTC
Louletano DCAway
DLLDDLeague form, oldest to newestLWWLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, SC Covilhã have 3 scored home results and Louletano DC 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: SC Covilhã at home: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Louletano DC away: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. SC Covilhã scored 0.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Louletano DC scored 1.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.21 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 1 of 6 pooled club appearances (16.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, SC Covilhã
0.81
Expected goals, Louletano DC
0.86
Most likely score
0-0 (19%)
Three or more goals
23%
Both clubs score
32%
SC Covilhã score at least once
55%
Louletano DC score at least once
58%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

SC Covilhã win–
Draw–
Louletano DC win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are SC Covilhã goals, columns are Louletano DC goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
019%16%7%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
115%13%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.34 goals) and away average (1.09 goals).

Sample. SC Covilhã 6 matches, Louletano DC 6, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 23 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.565.5%34.5%
2.546.6%53.4%
3.527.6%72.4%
4.513.8%86.2%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.527.6%72.4%
2.515.5%84.5%
3.55.2%94.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
SC CovilhãDLDLDD
Louletano DCWWWLDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
  • 33%
    Both teams scored
    League 46%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 75%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 87%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 50%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 66%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 46%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 27%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 8%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 13%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 2.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.43
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 8%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 27%
    6 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
SC CovilhãLouletano DC
14Position12
DLLDDLast 5, oldest to newestLWWLL
6Played6
1.00Points per match1.17
17%Win %33%
0.67Scored / match1.17
1.00Conceded / match1.33
1.67Avg total goals2.50
17%Both scored50%
50%Clean sheets33%
67%Failed to score33%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

SC CovilhãLouletano DC
  • 0.171st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.171st half conceded / match0.17
  • 0.502nd half scored / match0.67
  • 0.832nd half conceded / match1.17
  • 0%Leading at half-time50%
  • 17%1st half over 0.567%
  • 17%1st half over 1.50%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 17%Scored in both halves17%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Both clubs, every match this season.

Goals

SC CovilhãLouletano DC
  • 0.67Scored / match1.17
  • 1.00Conceded / match1.33
  • 1.67Match total / match2.50
  • 33%Scored 1+67%
  • 33%Scored 2+17%
  • 50%Conceded 1+67%
  • 33%Conceded 2+50%
  • 50%Match over 1.550%
  • 33%Match over 2.550%
  • 17%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Liga 3 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.