← World Cup 2026·Group E·MD 1

Côte d'Ivoire flagCôte d'Ivoire 10 Ecuador flagEcuadorFT

Played 2026-06-14 · Lincoln Financial · Philadelphia, USA
Result Verdict

Projected vs actual

Six markets, scored honestly. Hits in Pitch-Green; misses stay calm.

Market
Projected
Prob
Actual
Verdict
Total Throw-inso33.5
35.4
58%
28
Miss
Total Foulso18.5
30.1
95%
23
Hit
Total Cornerso7.5
8.3
60%
8
Hit
Shots on Targeto6.5
6.2
47%
5
Miss
Total Goals (1.5+)o1.5
1.8
57%
1
Miss
Total Goals (0.5+)o0.5
1.8
78%
1
Hit
Exclusive

Statistical Projections

Six markets, modeled per match. Confidence ratings shown openly.

Total Throw-ins
35.4throw-ins
Medium
Over 33.5
58%
Adjustment: none
Per-team splits
Côte d'Ivoire
17.5throw-ins
63% probability
Ecuador
17.9throw-ins
65% probability
Total Fouls
30.1fouls
Medium
Over 18.5
95%
Adjustment: none
Per-team splits
Côte d'Ivoire
15.3fouls
90% probability
Ecuador
14.8fouls
87% probability
Total Corners
8.3corners
Medium
Over 7.5
60%
Per-team splits
Côte d'Ivoire
5.2corners
75% probability
Ecuador
3.1corners
43% probability
Shots on Target
6.2SoT
Medium
Over 6.5
47%
Per-team splits
Côte d'Ivoire
3.4SoT
64% probability
Ecuador
2.8SoT
56% probability
Total Goals (1.5+)
1.81goals
High
Over 1.5
57%
Per-team splits
Côte d'Ivoire
goals
% probability
Ecuador
goals
% probability
Total Goals (0.5+)
1.81goals
High
Over 0.5
78%
Per-team splits
Côte d'Ivoire
1.06goals
65% probability
Ecuador
0.75goals
53% probability
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Matchup Profile

What shapes the numbers

Strength mismatch
MODERATE
HEAT downgrade
DOWNGRADE tempo overs
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Full projections for all 72 matches

Per-team splits, confidence ratings, adjustment notes — the complete intelligence layer.

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