← World Cup 2026·Group F·MD 1

Sweden flagSweden 51 Tunisia flagTunisiaFT

Played 2026-06-14 · Estadio BBVA · Monterrey, Mexico
Estadio BBVA in Monterrey — 2026 FIFA World Cup host venue
Venue
Estadio BBVA
Monterrey, Mexico
Open-air (ventilation design)
Result Verdict

Projected vs actual

Six markets, scored honestly. Hits in Pitch-Green; misses stay calm.

Market
Projected
Prob
Actual
Verdict
Total Throw-inso33.5
43.7
86%
35
Hit
Total Foulso18.5
29.6
94%
18
Miss
Total Cornerso7.5
7.4
48%
6
Miss
Shots on Targeto6.5
5.5
37%
9
Hit
Total Goals (1.5+)o1.5
2.8
78%
6
Hit
Total Goals (0.5+)o0.5
2.8
91%
6
Hit
Exclusive

Statistical Projections

Six markets, modeled per match. Confidence ratings shown openly.

Total Throw-ins
43.7throw-ins
Medium
Over 33.5
86%
Adjustment: none
Per-team splits
Sweden
21.1throw-ins
82% probability
Tunisia
22.6throw-ins
88% probability
Total Fouls
29.6fouls
Medium
Over 18.5
94%
Adjustment: none
Per-team splits
Sweden
13.2fouls
79% probability
Tunisia
16.4fouls
93% probability
Total Corners
7.4corners
Medium
Over 7.5
48%
Per-team splits
Sweden
3.6corners
52% probability
Tunisia
3.8corners
55% probability
Shots on Target
5.5SoT
Medium
Over 6.5
37%
Per-team splits
Sweden
2.8SoT
54% probability
Tunisia
2.7SoT
54% probability
Total Goals (1.5+)
2.82goals
High
Over 1.5
78%
Per-team splits
Sweden
goals
% probability
Tunisia
goals
% probability
Total Goals (0.5+)
2.82goals
High
Over 0.5
91%
Per-team splits
Sweden
1.28goals
72% probability
Tunisia
1.54goals
79% probability
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Matchup Profile

What shapes the numbers

Strength mismatch
LOW
HEAT downgrade
DOWNGRADE tempo overs
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SyncEdge

Full projections for all 72 matches

Per-team splits, confidence ratings, adjustment notes — the complete intelligence layer.

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