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1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig v FSV Zwickau, Regionalliga Nordost, Sun, 16 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 33. Sun, 16 May 2027

1. FC Lokomotive LeipzigHome
vKick-off 12:00 UTC
FSV ZwickauAway
LDDWLLeague form, oldest to newestDLLDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, 1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig have 6 scored home results and FSV Zwickau 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: 1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig at home: 0.33 points per match (6 measured matches); FSV Zwickau away: 1.50 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. 1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig scored 1.67 per home match (6 measured matches); FSV Zwickau scored 1.33 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.60 per club appearance across 204 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 10 of 12 pooled club appearances (83.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 102 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, 1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig
1.86
Expected goals, FSV Zwickau
1.63
Most likely score
1-1 (9%)
Three or more goals
68%
Both clubs score
68%
1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig score at least once
84%
FSV Zwickau score at least once
80%
Season sample
11 and 12 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig win–
Draw–
FSV Zwickau win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are 1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig goals, columns are FSV Zwickau goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
03%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
16%9%8%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
25%9%7%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
33%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.61 goals) and away average (1.59 goals).

Sample. 1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig 11 matches, FSV Zwickau 12, the league 102, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 8 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.585.6%14.4%
2.562.5%37.5%
3.541.3%58.7%
4.521.2%78.8%

First-half goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.572.1%27.9%
1.545.2%54.8%
2.521.2%78.8%
3.56.7%93.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig at homeDLLLDL
FSV Zwickau awayWLDWDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig at home, FSV Zwickau away
  • 83%
    Both teams scored
    League 66%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 86%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 75%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 63%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 41%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 21%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 3.4
    Avg total goals
    League 3.20
    6 + 6 matches
  • 58%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 73%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 45%
    6 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig at home, FSV Zwickau away
1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig (home)FSV Zwickau (away)
10Position9
LLLDLLast 5, oldest to newestLDWDD
6Played6
0.33Points per match1.50
0%Win %33%
1.67Scored / match1.33
2.50Conceded / match1.33
4.17Avg total goals2.67
83%Both scored83%
0%Clean sheets17%
17%Failed to score17%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

1. FC Lokomotive LeipzigFSV Zwickau
  • 0.501st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.501st half conceded / match0.67
  • 1.172nd half scored / match0.83
  • 2.002nd half conceded / match0.67
  • 33%Leading at half-time17%
  • 50%1st half over 0.567%
  • 33%1st half over 1.550%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.583%
  • 100%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 33%Scored in both halves17%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig at home, FSV Zwickau away, this season.

Goals

1. FC Lokomotive LeipzigFSV Zwickau
  • 1.67Scored / match1.33
  • 2.50Conceded / match1.33
  • 4.17Match total / match2.67
  • 83%Scored 1+83%
  • 50%Scored 2+50%
  • 100%Conceded 1+83%
  • 100%Conceded 2+33%
  • 100%Match over 1.583%
  • 83%Match over 2.567%
  • 50%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Regionalliga Nordost matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.