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Accrington v Barnet, EFL League Two, Sat, 20 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 32. Sat, 20 Feb 2027

AccringtonHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
BarnetAway
LDDWDLeague form, oldest to newestDDWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Crown Ground. Photo: robert wade, CC BY-SA 2.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Accrington have 5 scored home results and Barnet 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Accrington at home: 1.80 points per match (5 measured matches); Barnet away: 2.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Accrington scored 1.80 per home match (5 measured matches); Barnet scored 2.50 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 9 pooled club appearances (77.8%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 5. Accrington: 1 wins; Barnet: 3 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Accrington at home and Barnet away.

Accrington at home

xG 1.77
  • Shots per match14.8
  • On target per match6.0
  • Goals per match1.8

Barnet away

xG 1.37
  • Shots per match16.0
  • On target per match4.3
  • Goals per match2.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Accrington
1.73
Expected goals, Barnet
2.25
Most likely score
1-2 (8%)
Three or more goals
76%
Both clubs score
74%
Accrington score at least once
82%
Barnet score at least once
89%
Season sample
10 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Accrington win–
Draw–
Barnet win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Accrington goals, columns are Barnet goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%4%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
13%7%8%6%3%2%1%under 1%
23%6%7%5%3%1%1%under 1%
32%4%4%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%
41%2%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Accrington 10 matches, Barnet 8, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

5 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Accrington wins
1
Draws
3
Barnet wins
Goals / meeting
2.60
13 goals in 5 meetings
Both scored
60%
3 of 5 meetings
Over 1.5
80%
4 of 5 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
1 of 5 meetings
Accrington clean sheets
0%
0 of 5 meetings
Barnet clean sheets
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.00
5 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.60
5 with card data
  1. Barnet v AccringtonSat, 12 Sept 2026 · EFL League Two 2026-272–1HT 0–1
  2. Accrington v BarnetTue, 24 Feb 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-260–1HT 0–0
  3. Barnet v AccringtonSat, 4 Oct 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-262–0HT 1–0
  4. Barnet v AccringtonSat, 17 Feb 2018 · EFL League Two 2017-181–1HT 1–0
  5. Accrington v BarnetSat, 28 Oct 2017 · EFL League Two 2017-184–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Accrington at homeDWDDWD
Barnet awayLWDDDW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Accrington at home, Barnet away
  • 80%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 90%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 68%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 68%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 23%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 3.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 4 matches
  • 68%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 55%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 9.9
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    5 + 3 matches
  • 73%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    5 + 3 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    5 + 3 matches
  • 43%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    5 + 3 matches
  • 4.1
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    5 + 3 matches
  • 73%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    5 + 3 matches
  • 63%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    5 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Accrington at home, Barnet away
Accrington (home)Barnet (away)
15Position2
DDWDWLast 5, oldest to newestWDDW
5Played4
1.80Points per match2.00
40%Win %50%
1.80Scored / match2.50
1.20Conceded / match1.50
3.00Avg total goals4.00
60%Both scored100%
40%Clean sheets0%
20%Failed to score0%
1.77xG for1.37
0.99xG against1.42

Half by half

AccringtonBarnet
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.75
  • 0.801st half conceded / match0.75
  • 1.002nd half scored / match1.75
  • 0.402nd half conceded / match0.75
  • 20%Leading at half-time25%
  • 60%1st half over 0.575%
  • 60%1st half over 1.550%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 40%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Accrington at home, Barnet away, this season.

Goals

AccringtonBarnet
  • 1.80Scored / match2.50
  • 1.20Conceded / match1.50
  • 3.00Match total / match4.00
  • 80%Scored 1+100%
  • 80%Scored 2+75%
  • 60%Conceded 1+100%
  • 60%Conceded 2+25%
  • 80%Match over 1.5100%
  • 60%Match over 2.575%
  • 60%Match over 3.575%

Shots and xG

AccringtonBarnet
  • 14.80Shots for16.00
  • 12.20Shots against11.33
  • 6.00On target for4.33
  • 4.40On target against4.33
  • 12%Shot conversion15%
  • 1.77xG for1.37
  • 0.99xG against1.42

Corners

AccringtonBarnet
  • 4.80Corners for6.33
  • 4.60Corners against4.00
  • 9.40Match total10.33
  • 80%Over 7.567%
  • 80%Over 8.567%
  • 60%Over 9.567%
  • 20%Over 10.567%
  • 20%Over 11.567%

Cards

AccringtonBarnet
  • 2.80Cards for2.33
  • 1.40Cards against1.67
  • 4.20Match total4.00
  • 80%Over 2.567%
  • 80%Over 3.567%
  • 60%Over 4.567%
  • 20%Over 5.533%
  • 17.20Fouls committed15.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Salford10519
2Barnet8918
3Crewe10518
4Gillingham10516
13Tranmere10012
14Exeter10012
15Accrington10-111
16Fleetwood Town10-111
17Swindon10-511
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.