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AEK Athens v Asteras Tripolis, Greek Super League, Sat, 20 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 22. Sat, 20 Feb 2027

AEK AthensHome
vKick-off 18:00 UTC
Asteras TripolisAway
DWDWWLeague form, oldest to newestDDDDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, AEK Athens have 3 scored home results and Asteras Tripolis 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: AEK Athens at home: 3.00 points per match (3 measured matches); Asteras Tripolis away: 0.67 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. AEK Athens scored 4.00 per home match (3 measured matches); Asteras Tripolis scored 1.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.28 per club appearance across 120 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 6 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. AEK Athens: 0 wins; Asteras Tripolis: 0 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, AEK Athens at home and Asteras Tripolis away.

AEK Athens at home

  • Shots per match–
  • On target per match–
  • Goals per match4.0

Asteras Tripolis away

xG 0.96
  • Shots per match10.5
  • On target per match4.5
  • Goals per match1.7

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 60 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, AEK Athens
4.07
Expected goals, Asteras Tripolis
0.29
Most likely score
4-0 (15%)
Three or more goals
80%
Both clubs score
25%
AEK Athens score at least once
98%
Asteras Tripolis score at least once
25%
Season sample
6 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

AEK Athens win–
Draw–
Asteras Tripolis win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are AEK Athens goals, columns are Asteras Tripolis goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
01%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
16%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
211%3%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
315%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
415%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
513%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
69%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
75%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.62 goals) and away average (0.95 goals).

Sample. AEK Athens 6 matches, Asteras Tripolis 9, the league 60, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 60 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.579.0%21.0%
2.546.8%53.2%
3.529.0%71.0%
4.56.5%93.5%

First-half goals · 60 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.572.6%27.4%
1.540.3%59.7%
2.53.2%96.8%
3.51.6%98.4%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
AEK Athens wins
1
Draws
0
Asteras Tripolis wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
2 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
AEK Athens clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Asteras Tripolis clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Asteras Tripolis v AEK AthensSun, 13 Sept 2026 · Greek Super League 2026-271–1HT 1–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
AEK Athens at homeWWWWWW
Asteras Tripolis awayWLLWDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
AEK Athens at home, Asteras Tripolis away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 47%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 80%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 47%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 28%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 5%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 4.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.57
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 73%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
AEK Athens at home, Asteras Tripolis away
AEK Athens (home)Asteras Tripolis (away)
3Position13
WWWLast 5, oldest to newestLDD
3Played3
3.00Points per match0.67
100%Win %0%
4.00Scored / match1.67
0.00Conceded / match2.33
4.00Avg total goals4.00
0%Both scored100%
100%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score0%
–xG for0.96
–xG against0.71

Half by half

AEK AthensAsteras Tripolis
  • 1.331st half scored / match0.67
  • 0.001st half conceded / match1.00
  • 2.672nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match1.33
  • 100%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 33%1st half over 1.567%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 100%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 100%Scored in both halves67%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

AEK Athens at home, Asteras Tripolis away, this season.

Goals

AEK AthensAsteras Tripolis
  • 4.00Scored / match1.67
  • 0.00Conceded / match2.33
  • 4.00Match total / match4.00
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 100%Scored 2+67%
  • 0%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+100%
  • 100%Match over 1.5100%
  • 100%Match over 2.5100%
  • 67%Match over 3.5100%

Shots and xG

AEK AthensAsteras Tripolis
  • –Shots for10.50
  • –Shots against10.50
  • –On target for4.50
  • –On target against5.00
  • –Shot conversion14%
  • –xG for0.96
  • –xG against0.71

Corners

AEK AthensAsteras Tripolis
  • –Corners for2.50
  • –Corners against3.00
  • –Match total5.50
  • –Over 7.50%
  • –Over 8.50%
  • –Over 9.50%
  • –Over 10.50%
  • –Over 11.50%

Cards

AEK AthensAsteras Tripolis
  • –Cards for1.00
  • –Cards against1.50
  • –Match total2.50
  • –Over 2.550%
  • –Over 3.550%
  • –Over 4.550%
  • –Over 5.50%
  • –Fouls committed15.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Panathinaikos51015
1Panathinaikos FC51015
3AEK Athens61314
4PAOK5712
4PAOK5712
11Aris8-1110
12Panetolikos7-49
13Asteras Tripolis9-57
14Iraklis6-66
15Kifisia8-76
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Greek Super League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.