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AFC Wimbledon v Barnsley, EFL League One, Sat, 28 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 17. Sat, 28 Nov 2026

AFC WimbledonHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
BarnsleyAway
WWDDLLeague form, oldest to newestWLLDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Plough Lane. Photo: Johnlp, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, AFC Wimbledon have 4 scored home results and Barnsley 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: AFC Wimbledon at home: 2.00 points per match (4 measured matches); Barnsley away: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. AFC Wimbledon scored 0.50 per home match (4 measured matches); Barnsley scored 1.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 204 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 8 pooled club appearances (25.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 4. AFC Wimbledon: 1 wins; Barnsley: 1 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, AFC Wimbledon at home and Barnsley away.

AFC Wimbledon at home

xG 0.78
  • Shots per match9.8
  • On target per match2.3
  • Goals per match0.5

Barnsley away

xG 1.07
  • Shots per match14.7
  • On target per match2.7
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 102 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Expected goals, Barnsley
0.75
Most likely score
1-0 (17%)
Three or more goals
27%
Both clubs score
34%
AFC Wimbledon score at least once
65%
Barnsley score at least once
53%
Season sample
9 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

AFC Wimbledon win–
Draw–
Barnsley win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are AFC Wimbledon goals, columns are Barnsley goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
017%13%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
117%13%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
29%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.48 goals) and away average (1.40 goals).

Sample. AFC Wimbledon 9 matches, Barnsley 8, the league 102, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.9%23.1%
2.554.8%45.2%
3.534.6%65.4%
4.516.3%83.7%

First-half goals · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.564.4%35.6%
1.534.6%65.4%
2.516.3%83.7%
3.51.9%98.1%

Corners · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.571.7%28.3%
9.557.6%42.4%
10.545.7%54.3%

Yellow + red card events · 90 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.7%4.3%
1.589.1%10.9%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.550.0%50.0%
4.532.6%67.4%
5.518.5%81.5%
6.59.8%90.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

4 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
AFC Wimbledon wins
2
Draws
1
Barnsley wins
Goals / meeting
3.25
13 goals in 4 meetings
Both scored
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Over 1.5
75%
3 of 4 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Over 3.5
50%
2 of 4 meetings
AFC Wimbledon clean sheets
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Barnsley clean sheets
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.50
4 with corner data
Cards / meeting
2.25
4 with card data
  1. Barnsley v AFC WimbledonSat, 14 Feb 2026 · EFL League One 2025-263–3HT 2–2
  2. AFC Wimbledon v BarnsleySat, 23 Aug 2025 · EFL League One 2025-262–0HT 1–0
  3. AFC Wimbledon v BarnsleySat, 19 Jan 2019 · EFL League One 2018-191–4HT 1–1
  4. Barnsley v AFC WimbledonSat, 18 Aug 2018 · EFL League One 2018-190–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
AFC Wimbledon at homeDDWWDD
Barnsley awayDWLDLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
AFC Wimbledon at home, Barnsley away
  • 25%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 1.6
    Avg total goals
    League 2.88
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 65%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 11.9
    Corners per match
    League 10.72
    4 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 72%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 58%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 46%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 4.6
    Cards per match
    League 3.78
    4 + 3 matches
  • 71%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 50%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 54%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 32%
    4 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
AFC Wimbledon at home, Barnsley away
AFC Wimbledon (home)Barnsley (away)
11Position19
DWWDLast 5, oldest to newestDWLL
4Played4
2.00Points per match1.00
50%Win %25%
0.50Scored / match1.00
0.00Conceded / match1.75
0.50Avg total goals2.75
0%Both scored50%
100%Clean sheets25%
50%Failed to score50%
0.78xG for1.07
1.68xG against0.88

Half by half

AFC WimbledonBarnsley
  • 0.251st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.001st half conceded / match0.50
  • 0.252nd half scored / match0.50
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match1.25
  • 25%Leading at half-time50%
  • 25%1st half over 0.575%
  • 0%1st half over 1.525%
  • 25%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 0%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

AFC Wimbledon at home, Barnsley away, this season.

Goals

AFC WimbledonBarnsley
  • 0.50Scored / match1.00
  • 0.00Conceded / match1.75
  • 0.50Match total / match2.75
  • 50%Scored 1+50%
  • 0%Scored 2+25%
  • 0%Conceded 1+75%
  • 0%Conceded 2+50%
  • 0%Match over 1.575%
  • 0%Match over 2.575%
  • 0%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

AFC WimbledonBarnsley
  • 9.75Shots for14.67
  • 15.25Shots against8.67
  • 2.25On target for2.67
  • 4.75On target against3.33
  • 5%Shot conversion7%
  • 0.78xG for1.07
  • 1.68xG against0.88

Corners

AFC WimbledonBarnsley
  • 5.75Corners for7.00
  • 7.00Corners against4.00
  • 12.75Match total11.00
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 100%Over 8.567%
  • 100%Over 9.567%
  • 100%Over 10.567%
  • 75%Over 11.567%

Cards

AFC WimbledonBarnsley
  • 2.00Cards for2.33
  • 2.50Cards against2.33
  • 4.50Match total4.67
  • 75%Over 2.567%
  • 75%Over 3.567%
  • 75%Over 4.533%
  • 25%Over 5.533%
  • 12.50Fouls committed12.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
9Stevenage8412
10Burton10-212
11AFC Wimbledon9-312
12Leyton Orient9211
13Luton8111
17Leicester8-49
18Blackpool8-18
19Barnsley8-78
20Peterboro9-78
21Bromley8-118
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League One matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.