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Ajax v For Sittard, Eredivisie, Sat, 1 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 31. Sat, 1 May 2027

AjaxHome
vKick-off 17:00 UTC
For SittardAway
LWWDDLeague form, oldest to newestWWLWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Johan Cruyff Arena. Photo: Alf van Beem, CC0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Ajax have 5 scored home results and For Sittard 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Ajax at home: 1.20 points per match (5 measured matches); For Sittard away: 2.50 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Ajax scored 2.20 per home match (5 measured matches); For Sittard scored 2.25 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.87 per club appearance across 136 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 8 of 9 pooled club appearances (88.9%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Ajax: 8 wins; For Sittard: 0 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Ajax at home and For Sittard away.

Ajax at home

xG 2.53
  • Shots per match27.0
  • On target per match7.5
  • Goals per match2.2

For Sittard away

xG 0.94
  • Shots per match10.5
  • On target per match4.8
  • Goals per match2.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 68 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Ajax
2.54
Expected goals, For Sittard
1.26
Most likely score
2-1 (9%)
Three or more goals
73%
Both clubs score
66%
Ajax score at least once
92%
For Sittard score at least once
72%
Season sample
8 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Ajax win–
Draw–
For Sittard win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Ajax goals, columns are For Sittard goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
16%7%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
27%9%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
36%8%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.72 goals) and away average (2.01 goals).

Sample. Ajax 8 matches, For Sittard 8, the league 68, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 68 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.590.0%10.0%
2.571.4%28.6%
3.560.0%40.0%
4.531.4%68.6%

First-half goals · 68 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.581.4%18.6%
1.550.0%50.0%
2.525.7%74.3%
3.55.7%94.3%

Corners · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.572.3%27.7%
9.555.4%44.6%
10.552.3%47.7%

Yellow + red card events · 63 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.584.6%15.4%
1.573.8%26.2%
2.549.2%50.8%
3.532.3%67.7%
4.515.4%84.6%
5.512.3%87.7%
6.54.6%95.4%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

8
Ajax wins
2
Draws
0
For Sittard wins
Goals / meeting
4.00
40 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
90%
9 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Ajax clean sheets
50%
5 of 10 meetings
For Sittard clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
12.20
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.30
10 with card data
  1. For Sittard v AjaxSat, 12 Sept 2026 · Eredivisie 2026-271–5HT 0–1
  2. Ajax v For SittardSat, 14 Feb 2026 · Eredivisie 2025-264–1HT 3–1
  3. For Sittard v AjaxSat, 6 Dec 2025 · Eredivisie 2025-261–3HT 1–1
  4. For Sittard v AjaxSun, 9 Feb 2025 · Eredivisie 2024-250–2HT 0–0
  5. Ajax v For SittardWed, 18 Sept 2024 · Eredivisie 2024-255–0HT 2–0
  6. Ajax v For SittardSun, 10 Mar 2024 · Eredivisie 2023-242–2HT 1–0
  7. For Sittard v AjaxSun, 3 Sept 2023 · Eredivisie 2023-240–0HT 0–0
  8. Ajax v For SittardSun, 9 Apr 2023 · Eredivisie 2022-234–0HT 2–0
  9. For Sittard v AjaxSat, 6 Aug 2022 · Eredivisie 2022-232–3HT 1–0
  10. Ajax v For SittardWed, 22 Dec 2021 · Eredivisie 2021-225–0HT 2–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Ajax at homeWWDWWD
For Sittard awayLLDWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Ajax at home, For Sittard away
  • 88%
    Both teams scored
    League 69%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 99%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 72%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 78%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 60%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 35%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 31%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 3.9
    Avg total goals
    League 3.74
    5 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 82%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 50%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 8.0
    Corners per match
    League 10.44
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 73%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 56%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 52%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.8
    Cards per match
    League 2.71
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 32%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 14%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Ajax at home, For Sittard away
Ajax (home)For Sittard (away)
5Position6
DLWDDLast 5, oldest to newestDWWW
5Played4
1.20Points per match2.50
20%Win %75%
2.20Scored / match2.25
1.80Conceded / match1.50
4.00Avg total goals3.75
100%Both scored75%
0%Clean sheets25%
0%Failed to score0%
2.53xG for0.94
1.58xG against1.35

Half by half

AjaxFor Sittard
  • 1.401st half scored / match1.25
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.25
  • 0.802nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.802nd half conceded / match1.25
  • 40%Leading at half-time75%
  • 100%1st half over 0.575%
  • 100%1st half over 1.550%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.575%
  • 40%Scored in both halves75%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Ajax at home, For Sittard away, this season.

Goals

AjaxFor Sittard
  • 2.20Scored / match2.25
  • 1.80Conceded / match1.50
  • 4.00Match total / match3.75
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 60%Scored 2+75%
  • 100%Conceded 1+75%
  • 60%Conceded 2+75%
  • 100%Match over 1.575%
  • 80%Match over 2.575%
  • 80%Match over 3.575%

Shots and xG

AjaxFor Sittard
  • 27.00Shots for10.50
  • 10.25Shots against17.25
  • 7.50On target for4.75
  • 4.75On target against3.50
  • 9%Shot conversion21%
  • 2.53xG for0.94
  • 1.58xG against1.35

Corners

AjaxFor Sittard
  • 7.75Corners for1.25
  • 1.25Corners against5.75
  • 9.00Match total7.00
  • 75%Over 7.575%
  • 75%Over 8.550%
  • 25%Over 9.50%
  • 25%Over 10.50%
  • 25%Over 11.50%

Cards

AjaxFor Sittard
  • 1.50Cards for2.50
  • 1.75Cards against1.75
  • 3.25Match total4.25
  • 75%Over 2.575%
  • 50%Over 3.575%
  • 25%Over 4.525%
  • 25%Over 5.525%
  • 6.50Fouls committed10.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
3AZ Alkmaar81019
4Twente8817
5Ajax81215
6For Sittard8-114
7Excelsior7611
8Go Ahead Eagles8211
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Eredivisie matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.