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Al-Qadsiah v Al-Hilal, Saudi Pro League, Fri, 23 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 11. Fri, 23 Oct 2026

Al-QadsiahHome
vKick-off 18:00 UTC
Al-HilalAway
WWWDWLeague form, oldest to newestWWLWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Al-Qadsiah have 4 scored home results and Al-Hilal 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Al-Qadsiah at home: 1.75 points per match (4 measured matches); Al-Hilal away: 3.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Al-Qadsiah scored 2.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Al-Hilal scored 4.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.41 per club appearance across 138 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 8 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 69 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Al-Qadsiah
1.60
Expected goals, Al-Hilal
2.34
Most likely score
1-2 (9%)
Three or more goals
75%
Both clubs score
72%
Al-Qadsiah score at least once
80%
Al-Hilal score at least once
90%
Season sample
8 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Al-Qadsiah win–
Draw–
Al-Hilal win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Al-Qadsiah goals, columns are Al-Hilal goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%5%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
13%7%9%7%4%2%1%under 1%
23%6%7%5%3%1%1%under 1%
31%3%4%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.39 goals) and away average (1.43 goals).

Sample. Al-Qadsiah 8 matches, Al-Hilal 8, the league 69, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 69 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.6%25.4%
2.554.9%45.1%
3.535.2%64.8%
4.522.5%77.5%

First-half goals · 69 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.570.4%29.6%
1.550.7%49.3%
2.523.9%76.1%
3.55.6%94.4%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Al-Qadsiah at homeLLWWD
Al-Hilal awayLWWWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Al-Qadsiah at home, Al-Hilal away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 85%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 35%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 22%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 4.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.83
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 71%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 51%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Al-Qadsiah at home, Al-Hilal away
Al-Qadsiah (home)Al-Hilal (away)
2Position1
LWWDLast 5, oldest to newestWWWW
4Played4
1.75Points per match3.00
50%Win %100%
2.25Scored / match4.00
1.75Conceded / match0.25
4.00Avg total goals4.25
75%Both scored25%
0%Clean sheets75%
25%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Al-QadsiahAl-Hilal
  • 1.751st half scored / match2.25
  • 0.751st half conceded / match0.25
  • 0.502nd half scored / match1.75
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.00
  • 75%Leading at half-time75%
  • 100%1st half over 0.575%
  • 75%1st half over 1.550%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.575%
  • 50%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Al-Qadsiah at home, Al-Hilal away, this season.

Goals

Al-QadsiahAl-Hilal
  • 2.25Scored / match4.00
  • 1.75Conceded / match0.25
  • 4.00Match total / match4.25
  • 75%Scored 1+100%
  • 75%Scored 2+100%
  • 100%Conceded 1+25%
  • 50%Conceded 2+0%
  • 75%Match over 1.5100%
  • 75%Match over 2.575%
  • 75%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Al-Hilal81921
2Al-Qadsiah81319
3Al-Nassr81219
4Al-Ittihad8517
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Saudi Pro League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.