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Alanyaspor v Samsunspor, Süper Lig, Sat, 12 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 15. Sat, 12 Dec 2026

AlanyasporHome
vKick-off 13:00 UTC
SamsunsporAway
WLWDWLeague form, oldest to newestWLLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Alanyaspor have 2 scored home results and Samsunspor 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Alanyaspor at home: 2.00 points per match (2 measured matches); Samsunspor away: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Alanyaspor scored 1.50 per home match (2 measured matches); Samsunspor scored 0.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.49 per club appearance across 108 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 1 of 5 pooled club appearances (20.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 6. Alanyaspor: 2 wins; Samsunspor: 1 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match.

Alanyaspor

xG 1.23
  • Shots per match10.8
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match1.3

Samsunspor

xG 1.14
  • Shots per match13.2
  • On target per match2.7
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 54 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Alanyaspor
2.16
Expected goals, Samsunspor
0.53
Most likely score
2-0 (16%)
Three or more goals
50%
Both clubs score
37%
Alanyaspor score at least once
88%
Samsunspor score at least once
41%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Alanyaspor win–
Draw–
Samsunspor win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Alanyaspor goals, columns are Samsunspor goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
07%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
115%8%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
216%8%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
311%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
46%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
53%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.80 goals) and away average (1.19 goals).

Sample. Alanyaspor 6 matches, Samsunspor 6, the league 54, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 13 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.573.2%26.8%
2.555.4%44.6%
3.533.9%66.1%
4.521.4%78.6%

First-half goals · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.575.0%25.0%
1.537.5%62.5%
2.516.1%83.9%
3.58.9%91.1%

Corners · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.557.1%42.9%
9.551.8%48.2%
10.535.7%64.3%

Yellow + red card events · 54 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.4%3.6%
1.587.5%12.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.558.9%41.1%
4.544.6%55.4%
5.530.4%69.6%
6.516.1%83.9%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

6 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Alanyaspor wins
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor wins
Goals / meeting
2.67
16 goals in 6 meetings
Both scored
83%
5 of 6 meetings
Over 1.5
83%
5 of 6 meetings
Over 2.5
33%
2 of 6 meetings
Over 3.5
33%
2 of 6 meetings
Alanyaspor clean sheets
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Samsunspor clean sheets
0%
0 of 6 meetings
Corners / meeting
8.17
6 with corner data
Cards / meeting
5.17
6 with card data
  1. Alanyaspor v SamsunsporMon, 27 Apr 2026 · Süper Lig 2025-262–3HT 0–2
  2. Samsunspor v AlanyasporMon, 1 Dec 2025 · Süper Lig 2025-261–1HT 1–0
  3. Alanyaspor v SamsunsporMon, 21 Apr 2025 · Süper Lig 2024-251–0HT 1–0
  4. Samsunspor v AlanyasporSun, 24 Nov 2024 · Süper Lig 2024-251–1HT 1–0
  5. Samsunspor v AlanyasporSat, 18 May 2024 · Süper Lig 2023-241–1HT 0–1
  6. Alanyaspor v SamsunsporMon, 25 Dec 2023 · Süper Lig 2023-243–1HT 2–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Alanyaspor at homeWDLWWD
Samsunspor awayWWLWLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 46%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 67%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 74%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 25%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 33%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 2.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.98
    6 + 6 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 76%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 25%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 9.2
    Corners per match
    League 9.41
    6 + 6 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 57%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 52%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 35%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 3.2
    Cards per match
    League 4.24
    6 + 6 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 59%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 33%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    6 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
AlanyasporSamsunspor
5Position16
WLWDWLast 5, oldest to newestWLLLL
6Played6
1.83Points per match0.67
50%Win %17%
1.33Scored / match1.00
1.00Conceded / match2.00
2.33Avg total goals3.00
67%Both scored33%
33%Clean sheets17%
0%Failed to score50%
1.23xG for1.14
1.29xG against1.56

Half by half

AlanyasporSamsunspor
  • 0.331st half scored / match0.67
  • 0.331st half conceded / match1.17
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.33
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match0.83
  • 17%Leading at half-time33%
  • 50%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 17%1st half over 1.533%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 0%Scored in both halves33%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Both clubs, every match this season.

Goals

AlanyasporSamsunspor
  • 1.33Scored / match1.00
  • 1.00Conceded / match2.00
  • 2.33Match total / match3.00
  • 100%Scored 1+50%
  • 33%Scored 2+33%
  • 67%Conceded 1+83%
  • 33%Conceded 2+50%
  • 67%Match over 1.567%
  • 50%Match over 2.533%
  • 17%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

AlanyasporSamsunspor
  • 10.83Shots for13.17
  • 14.17Shots against15.33
  • 3.00On target for2.67
  • 4.83On target against6.00
  • 12%Shot conversion8%
  • 1.23xG for1.14
  • 1.29xG against1.56

Corners

AlanyasporSamsunspor
  • 5.33Corners for3.83
  • 3.67Corners against5.50
  • 9.00Match total9.33
  • 50%Over 7.583%
  • 50%Over 8.550%
  • 50%Over 9.550%
  • 50%Over 10.533%
  • 50%Over 11.517%

Cards

AlanyasporSamsunspor
  • 1.17Cards for0.67
  • 2.50Cards against2.00
  • 3.67Match total2.67
  • 67%Over 2.550%
  • 67%Over 3.533%
  • 50%Over 4.517%
  • 17%Over 5.50%
  • 14.67Fouls committed12.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
3Besiktas6712
4Kocaelispor6312
5Alanyaspor6211
6Fenerbahce61010
7Trabzonspor6810
14Erzurumspor6-87
15Konyaspor6-44
16Samsunspor6-64
17Goztep6-43
18Eyupspor6-143
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Süper Lig matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.