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Albirex Niigata v Shonan Bellmare, J2 League, Wed, 17 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 27. Wed, 17 Mar 2027

Albirex NiigataHome
vKick-off 09:00 UTC
Shonan BellmareAway
WWDWDLeague form, oldest to newestWDWDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Albirex Niigata have 5 scored home results and Shonan Bellmare 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Albirex Niigata at home: 3.00 points per match (5 measured matches); Shonan Bellmare away: 2.20 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Albirex Niigata scored 1.60 per home match (5 measured matches); Shonan Bellmare scored 1.00 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.27 per club appearance across 192 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 10 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Albirex Niigata: 3 wins; Shonan Bellmare: 4 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 96 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Albirex Niigata
0.96
Expected goals, Shonan Bellmare
0.98
Most likely score
0-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
31%
Both clubs score
39%
Albirex Niigata score at least once
62%
Shonan Bellmare score at least once
63%
Season sample
10 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Albirex Niigata win–
Draw–
Shonan Bellmare win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Albirex Niigata goals, columns are Shonan Bellmare goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
014%14%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%14%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
27%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.41 goals) and away average (1.13 goals).

Sample. Albirex Niigata 10 matches, Shonan Bellmare 9, the league 96, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 8 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 96 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.546.9%53.1%
3.525.5%74.5%
4.514.3%85.7%

First-half goals · 96 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.3%33.7%
1.532.7%67.3%
2.511.2%88.8%
3.55.1%94.9%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Albirex Niigata wins
3
Draws
4
Shonan Bellmare wins
Goals / meeting
3.30
33 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
90%
9 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Albirex Niigata clean sheets
0%
0 of 10 meetings
Shonan Bellmare clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Shonan Bellmare v Albirex NiigataSun, 11 Oct 2026 · J2 League 2026-271–1HT 0–0
  2. Shonan Bellmare v Albirex NiigataSat, 8 Nov 2025 · J1 League 20255–2
  3. Albirex Niigata v Shonan BellmareSun, 25 May 2025 · J1 League 20252–1
  4. Albirex Niigata v Shonan BellmareSat, 14 Sept 2024 · J1 League 20243–1
  5. Shonan Bellmare v Albirex NiigataSun, 19 May 2024 · J1 League 20242–1
  6. Albirex Niigata v Shonan BellmareSat, 12 Aug 2023 · J1 League 20232–2
  7. Shonan Bellmare v Albirex NiigataSat, 3 Jun 2023 · J1 League 20232–2
  8. Albirex Niigata v Shonan BellmareSat, 9 Jul 2016 · J1 League 20160–1
  9. Shonan Bellmare v Albirex NiigataSat, 27 Feb 2016 · J1 League 20161–2
  10. Albirex Niigata v Shonan BellmareSat, 7 Nov 2015 · J1 League 20150–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Albirex Niigata at homeWWLWWW
Shonan Bellmare awayDDWWDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Albirex Niigata at home, Shonan Bellmare away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 51%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 50%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 47%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 25%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 14%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 1.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.53
    5 + 5 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 67%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 32%
    5 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Albirex Niigata at home, Shonan Bellmare away
Albirex Niigata (home)Shonan Bellmare (away)
2Position6
WWWWWLast 5, oldest to newestWDWWD
5Played5
3.00Points per match2.20
100%Win %60%
1.60Scored / match1.00
0.60Conceded / match0.40
2.20Avg total goals1.40
60%Both scored40%
40%Clean sheets60%
0%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Albirex NiigataShonan Bellmare
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.40
  • 0.401st half conceded / match0.20
  • 0.802nd half scored / match0.60
  • 0.202nd half conceded / match0.20
  • 40%Leading at half-time20%
  • 60%1st half over 0.540%
  • 40%1st half over 1.520%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.560%
  • 20%2nd half over 1.520%
  • 40%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Albirex Niigata at home, Shonan Bellmare away, this season.

Goals

Albirex NiigataShonan Bellmare
  • 1.60Scored / match1.00
  • 0.60Conceded / match0.40
  • 2.20Match total / match1.40
  • 100%Scored 1+80%
  • 60%Scored 2+20%
  • 60%Conceded 1+40%
  • 0%Conceded 2+0%
  • 60%Match over 1.540%
  • 60%Match over 2.520%
  • 0%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for J2 League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.