Aldershot vs Sutton stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 27. Fri, 8 Jan 2027

vKick-off 19:45 UTC

LWLLLLeague form, oldest to newestDDLDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Aldershot have 6 scored home results and Sutton 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Aldershot at home: 1.67 points per match (6 measured matches); Sutton away: 1.33 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Aldershot scored 1.83 per home match (6 measured matches); Sutton scored 1.00 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.55 per club appearance across 310 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 12 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Aldershot: 1 wins; Sutton: 4 wins; draws: 5.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Aldershot at home and Sutton away.

Aldershot at home

Shots per match7.8
On target per match4.3
Goals per match1.8

Sutton away

Shots per match6.8
On target per match3.7
Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 155 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Aldershot: 1.34
Expected goals, Sutton: 0.78
Most likely score: 1-0 (16%)
Three or more goals: 36%
Both clubs score: 40%
Aldershot score at least once: 74%
Sutton score at least once: 54%
Season sample: 13 and 13 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Aldershot win–

Draw–

Sutton win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Aldershot goals, columns are Sutton goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

012%9%4%1%

116%13%5%1%

211%8%3%1%

35%4%1%

42%1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.68 goals) and away average (1.42 goals).

Sample. Aldershot 13 matches, Sutton 13, the league 155, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 155 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	80.9%	19.1%
2.5	60.5%	39.5%
3.5	38.2%	61.8%
4.5	21.0%	79.0%

First-half goals · 155 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73.2%	26.8%
1.5	33.1%	66.9%
2.5	14.0%	86.0%
3.5	4.5%	95.5%

Corners · 143 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	64.1%	35.9%
9.5	53.8%	46.2%
10.5	42.8%	57.2%

Yellow + red card events · 143 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	97.9%	2.1%
1.5	90.3%	9.7%
2.5	77.9%	22.1%
3.5	64.1%	35.9%
4.5	40.0%	60.0%
5.5	29.0%	71.0%
6.5	11.7%	88.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Aldershot wins

Draws

Sutton wins

Goals / meeting

2.60

26 goals in 10 meetings

Both scored

90%

9 of 10 meetings

Over 1.5

90%

9 of 10 meetings

Over 2.5

60%

6 of 10 meetings

Over 3.5

20%

2 of 10 meetings

Aldershot clean sheets

10%

1 of 10 meetings

Sutton clean sheets

10%

1 of 10 meetings

Corners / meeting

–

0 with corner data · small sample

Cards / meeting

4.90

10 with card data

Aldershot v SuttonFri, 3 Apr 2026 · National League 2025-262–2HT 2–1
Sutton v AldershotFri, 26 Dec 2025 · National League 2025-260–0HT 0–0
Aldershot v SuttonFri, 18 Apr 2025 · National League 2024-251–1HT 0–1
Sutton v AldershotWed, 1 Jan 2025 · National League 2024-251–1HT 1–0
Sutton v AldershotSat, 1 May 2021 · National League 2020-213–1HT 2–1
Aldershot v SuttonTue, 6 Oct 2020 · National League 2020-211–2HT 0–1
Aldershot v SuttonMon, 26 Aug 2019 · National League 2019-201–1HT 0–0
Sutton v AldershotSat, 29 Dec 2018 · National League 2018-192–1HT 2–1
Aldershot v SuttonMon, 27 Aug 2018 · National League 2018-192–1HT 1–0
Sutton v AldershotSat, 28 Apr 2018 · National League 2017-182–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

Aldershot at homeLWWDWL

Sutton awayWWLDLD

Sat, 3 Oct@ Kidderminster1–1C 5–0 · Y 1–1
Wed, 30 Sept@ Tamworth0–2C 3–9 · Y 2–3
Sat, 19 Sept@ Halifax1–1C 8–1 · Y 1–4
Sat, 5 Sept@ Barrow0–3C 6–5 · Y 4–6
Fri, 28 Aug@ Gateshead1–0C 4–2 · Y 3–3
Sat, 8 Aug@ Woking3–0C 1–5 · Y 4–1

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

Aldershot at home, Sutton away

50%
Both teams scored
League 63%
6 + 6 matches
100%
Over 0.5 goals
League 99%
6 + 6 matches
75%
Over 1.5 goals
League 81%
6 + 6 matches
42%
Over 2.5 goals
League 61%
6 + 6 matches
25%
Over 3.5 goals
League 38%
6 + 6 matches
8%
Over 4.5 goals
League 21%
6 + 6 matches
2.6
Avg total goals
League 3.10
6 + 6 matches
58%
1st half over 0.5
League 74%
6 + 6 matches
25%
1st half over 1.5
League 33%
6 + 6 matches
8.8
Corners per match
League 9.91
6 + 6 matches
58%
Corners over 8.5
League 64%
6 + 6 matches
33%
Corners over 9.5
League 54%
6 + 6 matches
33%
Corners over 10.5
League 43%
6 + 6 matches
4.8
Cards per match
League 4.24
6 + 6 matches
75%
Cards over 3.5
League 64%
6 + 6 matches
58%
Cards over 4.5
League 40%
6 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

Aldershot at home, Sutton away

Aldershot (home)		Sutton (away)
12	Position	13
WWDWL	Last 5, oldest to newest	WLDLD
6	Played	6
1.67	Points per match	1.33
50%	Win %	33%
1.83	Scored / match	1.00
1.17	Conceded / match	1.17
3.00	Avg total goals	2.17
67%	Both scored	33%
17%	Clean sheets	33%
17%	Failed to score	33%
–	xG for	–
–	xG against	–

Half by half

AldershotSutton

1.171st half scored / match0.17
0.501st half conceded / match0.33
0.672nd half scored / match0.83
0.672nd half conceded / match0.83
33%Leading at half-time17%
67%1st half over 0.550%
50%1st half over 1.50%
100%2nd half over 0.5100%
33%2nd half over 1.567%
17%Scored in both halves17%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Aldershot at home, Sutton away, this season.

Goals

AldershotSutton

1.83Scored / match1.00
1.17Conceded / match1.17
3.00Match total / match2.17
83%Scored 1+67%
33%Scored 2+17%
83%Conceded 1+67%
17%Conceded 2+33%
67%Match over 1.583%
50%Match over 2.533%
50%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

AldershotSutton

7.83Shots for6.83
9.33Shots against7.00
4.33On target for3.67
4.83On target against3.33
23%Shot conversion15%

Corners

AldershotSutton

4.00Corners for4.50
5.33Corners against3.67
9.33Match total8.17
67%Over 7.550%
67%Over 8.550%
33%Over 9.533%
33%Over 10.533%
33%Over 11.517%

Cards

AldershotSutton

2.00Cards for2.50
2.00Cards against3.00
4.00Match total5.50
83%Over 2.583%
67%Over 3.583%
33%Over 4.583%
17%Over 5.533%
11.33Fouls committed15.83

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
10	Halifax	13	7	20
11	Kidderminster	13	3	20
12	Aldershot	13	2	18
13	Sutton	13	-4	18
14	Carlisle	13	3	17
15	Woking	13	0	15

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.