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Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC v Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël, National 1, Sat, 13 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 19. Sat, 13 Feb 2027

Andrézieux-Bouthéon FCHome
vKick-off 17:00 UTC
Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-RaphaëlAway
WLWLDLeague form, oldest to newestLWLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC have 3 scored home results and Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC at home: 2.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël away: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC scored 2.00 per home match (3 measured matches); Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël scored 0.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.18 per club appearance across 286 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 6 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC: 0 wins; Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 143 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC
2.20
Expected goals, Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël
1.63
Most likely score
2-1 (9%)
Three or more goals
74%
Both clubs score
72%
Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC score at least once
89%
Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël score at least once
80%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC win–
Draw–
Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC goals, columns are Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%4%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
15%8%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%9%7%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
34%6%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%3%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.22 goals) and away average (1.13 goals).

Sample. Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC 6 matches, Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël 6, the league 143, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 27 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.566.2%33.8%
2.544.1%55.9%
3.525.5%74.5%
4.57.6%92.4%

First-half goals · 142 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.0%34.0%
1.531.3%68.8%
2.59.7%90.3%
3.53.5%96.5%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC wins
0
Draws
1
Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
2 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël v Andrézieux-Bouthéon FCSat, 5 Sept 2026 · National 1 2026-272–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Andrézieux-Bouthéon FC at homeDWWD
Etoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël awayLLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 50%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 87%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 66%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 44%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 33%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 25%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 7%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 3.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.36
    6 + 6 matches
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 58%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    6 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
Andrézieux-Bouthéon FCEtoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël
27Position25
WLWLDLast 5, oldest to newestLWLLW
6Played6
1.33Points per match1.50
33%Win %50%
1.50Scored / match1.50
1.33Conceded / match1.67
2.83Avg total goals3.17
67%Both scored33%
17%Clean sheets50%
17%Failed to score17%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Andrézieux-Bouthéon FCEtoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël
  • 1.001st half scored / match0.67
  • 0.831st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.502nd half scored / match0.83
  • 0.502nd half conceded / match0.67
  • 17%Leading at half-time17%
  • 83%1st half over 0.567%
  • 67%1st half over 1.550%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 17%Scored in both halves17%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Both clubs, every match this season.

Goals

Andrézieux-Bouthéon FCEtoile FC Fréjus Saint-Raphaël
  • 1.50Scored / match1.50
  • 1.33Conceded / match1.67
  • 2.83Match total / match3.17
  • 83%Scored 1+83%
  • 50%Scored 2+50%
  • 83%Conceded 1+50%
  • 33%Conceded 2+50%
  • 100%Match over 1.583%
  • 33%Match over 2.567%
  • 33%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National 1 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.