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Arbroath v Raith Rvs, Scottish Championship, Sat, 31 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 13. Sat, 31 Oct 2026

ArbroathHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Raith RvsAway
LLWLLLeague form, oldest to newestWDLWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Arbroath have 5 scored home results and Raith Rvs 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Arbroath at home: 1.60 points per match (5 measured matches); Raith Rvs away: 2.00 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Arbroath scored 1.00 per home match (5 measured matches); Raith Rvs scored 1.20 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.03 per club appearance across 94 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 10 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Arbroath: 3 wins; Raith Rvs: 4 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Arbroath at home and Raith Rvs away.

Arbroath at home

  • Shots per match3.5
  • On target per match1.3
  • Goals per match1.0

Raith Rvs away

  • Shots per match6.2
  • On target per match3.0
  • Goals per match1.2

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 47 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Arbroath
0.46
Expected goals, Raith Rvs
1.89
Most likely score
0-1 (18%)
Three or more goals
42%
Both clubs score
31%
Arbroath score at least once
37%
Raith Rvs score at least once
85%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Arbroath win–
Draw–
Raith Rvs win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Arbroath goals, columns are Raith Rvs goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
010%18%17%11%5%2%1%under 1%
14%8%8%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
21%2%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.17 goals) and away average (0.89 goals).

Sample. Arbroath 10 matches, Raith Rvs 10, the league 47, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 47 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.571.4%28.6%
2.530.6%69.4%
3.512.2%87.8%
4.54.1%95.9%

First-half goals · 47 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.567.3%32.7%
1.530.6%69.4%
2.58.2%91.8%
3.52.0%98.0%

Corners · 42 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.550.0%50.0%
9.543.2%56.8%
10.531.8%68.2%

Yellow + red card events · 42 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.5%4.5%
1.590.9%9.1%
2.570.5%29.5%
3.550.0%50.0%
4.536.4%63.6%
5.513.6%86.4%
6.56.8%93.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Arbroath wins
3
Draws
4
Raith Rvs wins
Goals / meeting
3.40
34 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
90%
9 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Arbroath clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Raith Rvs clean sheets
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.40
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
2.60
10 with card data
  1. Raith Rvs v ArbroathSat, 12 Sept 2026 · Scottish Championship 2026-274–0HT 3–0
  2. Arbroath v Raith RvsSat, 18 Apr 2026 · Scottish Championship 2025-262–1HT 1–0
  3. Raith Rvs v ArbroathSat, 10 Jan 2026 · Scottish Championship 2025-262–3HT 0–2
  4. Arbroath v Raith RvsSat, 22 Nov 2025 · Scottish Championship 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  5. Raith Rvs v ArbroathSat, 27 Sept 2025 · Scottish Championship 2025-263–0HT 0–0
  6. Raith Rvs v ArbroathFri, 3 May 2024 · Scottish Championship 2023-245–0HT 2–0
  7. Arbroath v Raith RvsFri, 1 Mar 2024 · Scottish Championship 2023-243–2HT 0–1
  8. Raith Rvs v ArbroathSat, 30 Dec 2023 · Scottish Championship 2023-242–2HT 1–0
  9. Arbroath v Raith RvsWed, 13 Dec 2023 · Scottish Championship 2023-241–2HT 1–1
  10. Raith Rvs v ArbroathSat, 15 Apr 2023 · Scottish Championship 2022-231–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Arbroath at homeWDWDWL
Raith Rvs awayDWLWDW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Arbroath at home, Raith Rvs away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 38%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 72%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 30%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 11%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 2%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 1.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.06
    5 + 5 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 68%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 30%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 7.7
    Corners per match
    League 9.69
    4 + 5 matches
  • 23%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 50%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 23%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 43%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 31%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 3.9
    Cards per match
    League 3.64
    4 + 5 matches
  • 48%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 50%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 38%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 36%
    4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Arbroath at home, Raith Rvs away
Arbroath (home)Raith Rvs (away)
8Position2
DWDWLLast 5, oldest to newestWLWDW
5Played5
1.60Points per match2.00
40%Win %60%
1.00Scored / match1.20
0.80Conceded / match0.60
1.80Avg total goals1.80
60%Both scored40%
40%Clean sheets40%
20%Failed to score40%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

ArbroathRaith Rvs
  • 0.401st half scored / match0.60
  • 0.201st half conceded / match0.00
  • 0.602nd half scored / match0.60
  • 0.602nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 20%Leading at half-time60%
  • 40%1st half over 0.560%
  • 20%1st half over 1.50%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 0%Scored in both halves60%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Arbroath at home, Raith Rvs away, this season.

Goals

ArbroathRaith Rvs
  • 1.00Scored / match1.20
  • 0.80Conceded / match0.60
  • 1.80Match total / match1.80
  • 80%Scored 1+60%
  • 20%Scored 2+60%
  • 60%Conceded 1+60%
  • 20%Conceded 2+0%
  • 60%Match over 1.560%
  • 40%Match over 2.540%
  • 0%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

ArbroathRaith Rvs
  • 3.50Shots for6.20
  • 10.50Shots against9.00
  • 1.25On target for3.00
  • 3.25On target against4.00
  • 29%Shot conversion19%

Corners

ArbroathRaith Rvs
  • 1.75Corners for3.20
  • 6.00Corners against4.40
  • 7.75Match total7.60
  • 50%Over 7.520%
  • 25%Over 8.520%
  • 25%Over 9.520%
  • 0%Over 10.520%
  • 0%Over 11.520%

Cards

ArbroathRaith Rvs
  • 2.25Cards for1.60
  • 2.75Cards against1.20
  • 5.00Match total2.80
  • 75%Over 2.560%
  • 75%Over 3.520%
  • 75%Over 4.50%
  • 50%Over 5.50%
  • 11.00Fouls committed14.40

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Stenhousemuir9822
2Raith Rvs10920
3Partick9718
4Livingston10313
6Dunfermline8213
7Ayr10-112
8Arbroath10-811
9Morton10-114
10Queens Park9-114
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Scottish Championship matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.