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MatchDaySync

Arsenal v Hull, Premier League, Sat, 7 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 10. Sat, 7 Nov 2026

ArsenalHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
HullAway
WWWLWLeague form, oldest to newestWWDDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Emirates Stadium. Photo: Arne Müseler / arne-mueseler.com / Original source, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Arsenal have 3 scored home results and Hull 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Arsenal at home: 3.00 points per match (3 measured matches); Hull away: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Arsenal scored 2.33 per home match (3 measured matches); Hull scored 1.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 6 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Arsenal at home and Hull away.

Arsenal at home

xG 1.97
  • Shots per match18.0
  • On target per match7.5
  • Goals per match2.3

Hull away

xG 1.23
  • Shots per match14.0
  • On target per match3.7
  • Goals per match1.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Arsenal
1.01
Expected goals, Hull
0.63
Most likely score
1-0 (20%)
Three or more goals
23%
Both clubs score
30%
Arsenal score at least once
64%
Hull score at least once
47%
Season sample
6 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Arsenal win–
Draw–
Hull win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Arsenal goals, columns are Hull goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
019%12%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
120%12%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Arsenal 6 matches, Hull 5, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.1%25.9%
2.553.4%46.6%
3.534.5%65.5%
4.520.7%79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.6%41.4%
1.537.9%62.1%
2.517.2%82.8%
3.56.9%93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.1%51.9%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.536.5%63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.588.5%11.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.538.5%61.5%
5.521.2%78.8%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Arsenal at homeWLWWWW
Hull awayLDWLDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Arsenal at home, Hull away
  • 67%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.87
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 10.0
    Corners per match
    League 9.38
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 48%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 36%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 4.7
    Cards per match
    League 3.88
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    2 + 3 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Arsenal at home, Hull away
Arsenal (home)Hull (away)
2Position10
WWWLast 5, oldest to newestWDL
3Played3
3.00Points per match1.33
100%Win %33%
2.33Scored / match1.33
0.67Conceded / match1.33
3.00Avg total goals2.67
67%Both scored67%
33%Clean sheets33%
0%Failed to score0%
1.97xG for1.23
0.30xG against1.21

Half by half

ArsenalHull
  • 1.001st half scored / match0.67
  • 0.331st half conceded / match1.00
  • 1.332nd half scored / match0.67
  • 0.332nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 33%Leading at half-time33%
  • 67%1st half over 0.567%
  • 67%1st half over 1.567%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 67%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Arsenal at home, Hull away, this season.

Goals

ArsenalHull
  • 2.33Scored / match1.33
  • 0.67Conceded / match1.33
  • 3.00Match total / match2.67
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 100%Scored 2+33%
  • 67%Conceded 1+67%
  • 0%Conceded 2+67%
  • 100%Match over 1.567%
  • 100%Match over 2.567%
  • 0%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

ArsenalHull
  • 18.00Shots for14.00
  • 8.50Shots against11.67
  • 7.50On target for3.67
  • 3.00On target against5.00
  • 14%Shot conversion10%
  • 1.97xG for1.23
  • 0.30xG against1.21

Corners

ArsenalHull
  • 6.50Corners for4.33
  • 2.50Corners against6.67
  • 9.00Match total11.00
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 50%Over 8.567%
  • 50%Over 9.567%
  • 0%Over 10.567%
  • 0%Over 11.533%

Cards

ArsenalHull
  • 1.50Cards for4.33
  • 2.50Cards against1.00
  • 4.00Match total5.33
  • 50%Over 2.5100%
  • 50%Over 3.5100%
  • 50%Over 4.5100%
  • 50%Over 5.533%
  • 11.50Fouls committed10.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Man City5815
2Arsenal6515
3Brighton61313
4Brentford6610
8Everton539
9Ipswich6-39
10Hull528
11Newcastle508
12Man United606
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.