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Ashton United FC v Bamber Bridge FC, Northern Premier League, Premier Division, Sat, 16 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 28. Sat, 16 Jan 2027

Ashton United FCHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Bamber Bridge FCAway
LLLDDLeague form, oldest to newestLWLLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Ashton United FC have 5 scored home results and Bamber Bridge FC 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Ashton United FC at home: 1.40 points per match (5 measured matches); Bamber Bridge FC away: 0.33 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Ashton United FC scored 1.60 per home match (5 measured matches); Bamber Bridge FC scored 1.00 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.65 per club appearance across 266 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 11 pooled club appearances (63.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Ashton United FC: 0 wins; Bamber Bridge FC: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 133 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Ashton United FC
2.07
Expected goals, Bamber Bridge FC
0.91
Most likely score
2-0 (11%)
Three or more goals
57%
Both clubs score
52%
Ashton United FC score at least once
87%
Bamber Bridge FC score at least once
60%
Season sample
11 and 12 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Ashton United FC win–
Draw–
Bamber Bridge FC win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Ashton United FC goals, columns are Bamber Bridge FC goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
05%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
110%10%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
211%10%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
37%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.72 goals) and away average (1.59 goals).

Sample. Ashton United FC 11 matches, Bamber Bridge FC 12, the league 133, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.5%18.5%
2.564.4%35.6%
3.540.7%59.3%
4.524.4%75.6%

First-half goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.574.1%25.9%
1.542.2%57.8%
2.515.6%84.4%
3.57.4%92.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Ashton United FC wins
0
Draws
1
Bamber Bridge FC wins
Goals / meeting
1.00
1 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Ashton United FC clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Bamber Bridge FC clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Bamber Bridge FC v Ashton United FCSat, 15 Aug 2026 · Northern Premier League, Premier Division 2026-271–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Ashton United FC at homeLWWDLL
Bamber Bridge FC awayLDLLLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Ashton United FC at home, Bamber Bridge FC away
  • 63%
    Both teams scored
    League 57%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 82%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 82%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 53%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 65%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 43%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 41%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 27%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 24%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 3.1
    Avg total goals
    League 3.31
    5 + 6 matches
  • 82%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 74%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 55%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 42%
    5 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Ashton United FC at home, Bamber Bridge FC away
Ashton United FC (home)Bamber Bridge FC (away)
14Position20
WWDLLLast 5, oldest to newestDLLLD
5Played6
1.40Points per match0.33
40%Win %0%
1.60Scored / match1.00
1.00Conceded / match2.67
2.60Avg total goals3.67
60%Both scored67%
20%Clean sheets17%
20%Failed to score33%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Ashton United FCBamber Bridge FC
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.33
  • 0.601st half conceded / match1.17
  • 0.802nd half scored / match0.67
  • 0.402nd half conceded / match1.50
  • 40%Leading at half-time17%
  • 80%1st half over 0.583%
  • 60%1st half over 1.550%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.583%
  • 20%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 20%Scored in both halves17%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Ashton United FC at home, Bamber Bridge FC away, this season.

Goals

Ashton United FCBamber Bridge FC
  • 1.60Scored / match1.00
  • 1.00Conceded / match2.67
  • 2.60Match total / match3.67
  • 80%Scored 1+67%
  • 40%Scored 2+33%
  • 80%Conceded 1+83%
  • 20%Conceded 2+83%
  • 80%Match over 1.583%
  • 40%Match over 2.567%
  • 20%Match over 3.567%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Northern Premier League, Premier Division matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.