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Ath Bilbao v Santander, La Liga, Sun, 4 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 30. Sun, 4 Apr 2027

Ath BilbaoHome
vKick-off 19:00 UTC
SantanderAway
LWWDDLeague form, oldest to newestWLWLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

San Mamés Stadium. Photo: Валерий Дед, CC BY 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Ath Bilbao have 4 scored home results and Santander 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Ath Bilbao at home: 1.25 points per match (4 measured matches); Santander away: 0.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Ath Bilbao scored 1.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Santander scored 1.00 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.50 per club appearance across 146 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 8 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Ath Bilbao at home and Santander away.

Ath Bilbao at home

xG 1.67
  • Shots per match18.0
  • On target per match5.3
  • Goals per match1.3

Santander away

xG 1.09
  • Shots per match7.8
  • On target per match3.8
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 73 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Ath Bilbao
2.64
Expected goals, Santander
0.91
Most likely score
2-0 (10%)
Three or more goals
69%
Both clubs score
55%
Ath Bilbao score at least once
93%
Santander score at least once
60%
Season sample
6 and 7 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Ath Bilbao win–
Draw–
Santander win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Ath Bilbao goals, columns are Santander goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
03%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
18%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
46%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
53%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
71%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.70 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Ath Bilbao 6 matches, Santander 7, the league 73, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 73 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.0%24.0%
2.556.0%44.0%
3.537.3%62.7%
4.522.7%77.3%

First-half goals · 73 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.566.7%33.3%
1.546.7%53.3%
2.517.3%82.7%
3.56.7%93.3%

Corners · 69 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.550.7%49.3%
9.549.3%50.7%
10.539.4%60.6%

Yellow + red card events · 69 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.8%4.2%
1.587.3%12.7%
2.576.1%23.9%
3.562.0%38.0%
4.547.9%52.1%
5.533.8%66.2%
6.514.1%85.9%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Ath Bilbao at homeWWDDDW
Santander awayWDLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Ath Bilbao at home, Santander away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 37%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 22%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 3.6
    Avg total goals
    League 3.00
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 67%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 47%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 11.4
    Corners per match
    League 9.65
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 51%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 39%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 5.0
    Cards per match
    League 4.29
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 62%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 48%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Ath Bilbao at home, Santander away
Ath Bilbao (home)Santander (away)
9Position16
LWDDLast 5, oldest to newestLLLL
4Played4
1.25Points per match0.00
25%Win %0%
1.25Scored / match1.00
1.00Conceded / match4.00
2.25Avg total goals5.00
50%Both scored50%
50%Clean sheets0%
25%Failed to score50%
1.67xG for1.09
0.58xG against2.92

Half by half

Ath BilbaoSantander
  • 0.001st half scored / match0.75
  • 0.251st half conceded / match2.00
  • 1.252nd half scored / match0.25
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match2.00
  • 0%Leading at half-time0%
  • 25%1st half over 0.575%
  • 0%1st half over 1.575%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 75%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 0%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Ath Bilbao at home, Santander away, this season.

Goals

Ath BilbaoSantander
  • 1.25Scored / match1.00
  • 1.00Conceded / match4.00
  • 2.25Match total / match5.00
  • 75%Scored 1+50%
  • 25%Scored 2+50%
  • 50%Conceded 1+100%
  • 25%Conceded 2+75%
  • 75%Match over 1.575%
  • 50%Match over 2.575%
  • 25%Match over 3.575%

Shots and xG

Ath BilbaoSantander
  • 18.00Shots for7.75
  • 6.75Shots against17.75
  • 5.25On target for3.75
  • 2.50On target against7.25
  • 7%Shot conversion13%
  • 1.67xG for1.09
  • 0.58xG against2.92

Corners

Ath BilbaoSantander
  • 6.25Corners for3.75
  • 3.25Corners against9.50
  • 9.50Match total13.25
  • 75%Over 7.575%
  • 50%Over 8.575%
  • 50%Over 9.575%
  • 50%Over 10.575%
  • 25%Over 11.575%

Cards

Ath BilbaoSantander
  • 2.00Cards for3.00
  • 2.25Cards against2.75
  • 4.25Match total5.75
  • 50%Over 2.5100%
  • 50%Over 3.5100%
  • 50%Over 4.575%
  • 50%Over 5.550%
  • 11.00Fouls committed13.25

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
7La Coruna7210
8Sociedad7-410
9Ath Bilbao618
10Villarreal808
11Espanol808
14Osasuna7-78
15Celta727
16Santander7-107
17Levante6-45
18Elche7-65
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for La Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.