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MatchDaySync

Augsburg v Mainz, Bundesliga, Sun, 22 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 10. Sun, 22 Nov 2026

AugsburgHome
vKick-off 14:30 UTC
MainzAway
WWDLDLeague form, oldest to newestDWLWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

WWK Arena. Photo: Futbol vic, CC BY-SA 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Augsburg have 3 scored home results and Mainz 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Augsburg at home: 1.67 points per match (3 measured matches); Mainz away: 3.00 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Augsburg scored 2.33 per home match (3 measured matches); Mainz scored 4.50 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.93 per club appearance across 86 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 5 pooled club appearances (60.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Augsburg: 2 wins; Mainz: 7 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Augsburg at home and Mainz away.

Augsburg at home

xG 2.32
  • Shots per match16.0
  • On target per match9.0
  • Goals per match2.3

Mainz away

xG 2.80
  • Shots per match17.0
  • On target per match8.0
  • Goals per match4.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 43 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Augsburg
3.31
Expected goals, Mainz
1.66
Most likely score
3-1 (7%)
Three or more goals
87%
Both clubs score
78%
Augsburg score at least once
96%
Mainz score at least once
81%
Season sample
5 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Augsburg win–
Draw–
Mainz win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Augsburg goals, columns are Mainz goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
01%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
12%4%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
24%6%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%7%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%6%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%4%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%2%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
71%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (2.37 goals) and away average (1.49 goals).

Sample. Augsburg 5 matches, Mainz 5, the league 43, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 43 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.584.4%15.6%
2.575.6%24.4%
3.562.2%37.8%
4.542.2%57.8%

First-half goals · 43 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.584.4%15.6%
1.540.0%60.0%
2.517.8%82.2%
3.56.7%93.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Augsburg wins
1
Draws
7
Mainz wins
Goals / meeting
3.10
31 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
80%
8 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Augsburg clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Mainz clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
10.40
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
5.10
10 with card data
  1. Mainz v AugsburgSat, 7 Feb 2026 · Bundesliga 2025-262–0HT 1–0
  2. Augsburg v MainzSat, 20 Sept 2025 · Bundesliga 2025-261–4HT 0–2
  3. Mainz v AugsburgSat, 8 Feb 2025 · Bundesliga 2024-250–0HT 0–0
  4. Augsburg v MainzFri, 20 Sept 2024 · Bundesliga 2024-252–3HT 1–2
  5. Mainz v AugsburgSat, 17 Feb 2024 · Bundesliga 2023-241–0HT 1–0
  6. Augsburg v MainzSat, 23 Sept 2023 · Bundesliga 2023-242–1HT 2–1
  7. Mainz v AugsburgSat, 11 Feb 2023 · Bundesliga 2022-233–1HT 2–1
  8. Augsburg v MainzSat, 20 Aug 2022 · Bundesliga 2022-231–2HT 1–1
  9. Augsburg v MainzWed, 6 Apr 2022 · Bundesliga 2021-222–1HT 1–0
  10. Mainz v AugsburgFri, 22 Oct 2021 · Bundesliga 2021-224–1HT 3–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Augsburg at homeDDWWDD
Mainz awayDWWWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Augsburg at home, Mainz away
  • 58%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 86%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 77%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 83%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 63%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 42%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 4.8
    Avg total goals
    League 3.86
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 86%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 12.3
    Corners per match
    League 10.86
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 75%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 61%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 56%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 4.8
    Cards per match
    League 3.67
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 56%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 22%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Augsburg at home, Mainz away
Augsburg (home)Mainz (away)
6Position8
WDDLast 5, oldest to newestWW
3Played2
1.67Points per match3.00
33%Win %100%
2.33Scored / match4.50
1.33Conceded / match1.50
3.67Avg total goals6.00
67%Both scored50%
33%Clean sheets50%
0%Failed to score0%
2.32xG for2.80
2.09xG against1.78

Half by half

AugsburgMainz
  • 0.671st half scored / match2.00
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.50
  • 1.672nd half scored / match2.50
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 67%Leading at half-time100%
  • 100%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 0%1st half over 1.5100%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 100%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 67%Scored in both halves100%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Augsburg at home, Mainz away, this season.

Goals

AugsburgMainz
  • 2.33Scored / match4.50
  • 1.33Conceded / match1.50
  • 3.67Match total / match6.00
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 100%Scored 2+100%
  • 67%Conceded 1+50%
  • 67%Conceded 2+50%
  • 100%Match over 1.5100%
  • 100%Match over 2.5100%
  • 67%Match over 3.5100%

Shots and xG

AugsburgMainz
  • 16.00Shots for17.00
  • 20.50Shots against14.50
  • 9.00On target for8.00
  • 5.00On target against4.00
  • 16%Shot conversion27%
  • 2.32xG for2.80
  • 2.09xG against1.78

Corners

AugsburgMainz
  • 6.50Corners for4.50
  • 8.50Corners against5.00
  • 15.00Match total9.50
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 100%Over 8.5100%
  • 100%Over 9.550%
  • 100%Over 10.50%
  • 100%Over 11.50%

Cards

AugsburgMainz
  • 1.00Cards for4.00
  • 1.00Cards against3.50
  • 2.00Match total7.50
  • 0%Over 2.5100%
  • 0%Over 3.5100%
  • 0%Over 4.550%
  • 0%Over 5.550%
  • 5.50Fouls committed16.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
4Leverkusen5610
5RB Leipzig5109
6Augsburg558
7Werder Bremen508
8Mainz537
9Elversberg507
10Stuttgart5-16
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Bundesliga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.