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Barnet v Northampton, EFL League Two, Sat, 12 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 19. Sat, 12 Dec 2026

BarnetHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
NorthamptonAway
DDWWWLeague form, oldest to newestDWLLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

The Hive Stadium. Photo: Hgreally, CC BY 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Barnet have 4 scored home results and Northampton 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Barnet at home: 2.50 points per match (4 measured matches); Northampton away: 0.50 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Barnet scored 2.50 per home match (4 measured matches); Northampton scored 0.50 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 8 pooled club appearances (75.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Barnet at home and Northampton away.

Barnet at home

xG 1.81
  • Shots per match15.5
  • On target per match5.3
  • Goals per match2.5

Northampton away

xG 0.48
  • Shots per match9.0
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match0.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Barnet
2.12
Expected goals, Northampton
0.44
Most likely score
2-0 (17%)
Three or more goals
47%
Both clubs score
31%
Barnet score at least once
88%
Northampton score at least once
36%
Season sample
8 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Barnet win–
Draw–
Northampton win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Barnet goals, columns are Northampton goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
116%7%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
217%8%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
312%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
46%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
53%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Barnet 8 matches, Northampton 8, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Barnet at homeWWWDWW
Northampton awayLLDLLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Barnet at home, Northampton away
  • 75%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 10.4
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    4 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 54%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 4.3
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    4 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    4 + 3 matches
  • 54%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    4 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Barnet at home, Northampton away
Barnet (home)Northampton (away)
2Position23
WDWWLast 5, oldest to newestLDLD
4Played4
2.50Points per match0.50
75%Win %0%
2.50Scored / match0.50
1.25Conceded / match1.25
3.75Avg total goals1.75
100%Both scored50%
0%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score50%
1.81xG for0.48
1.03xG against0.61

Half by half

BarnetNorthampton
  • 1.001st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.501st half conceded / match0.75
  • 1.502nd half scored / match0.00
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match0.50
  • 50%Leading at half-time25%
  • 100%1st half over 0.575%
  • 50%1st half over 1.550%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 100%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 75%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Barnet at home, Northampton away, this season.

Goals

BarnetNorthampton
  • 2.50Scored / match0.50
  • 1.25Conceded / match1.25
  • 3.75Match total / match1.75
  • 100%Scored 1+50%
  • 100%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 25%Conceded 2+25%
  • 100%Match over 1.575%
  • 100%Match over 2.50%
  • 75%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

BarnetNorthampton
  • 15.50Shots for9.00
  • 11.50Shots against9.33
  • 5.25On target for4.00
  • 3.50On target against3.33
  • 16%Shot conversion4%
  • 1.81xG for0.48
  • 1.03xG against0.61

Corners

BarnetNorthampton
  • 7.00Corners for5.00
  • 4.75Corners against4.00
  • 11.75Match total9.00
  • 100%Over 7.567%
  • 100%Over 8.533%
  • 100%Over 9.533%
  • 75%Over 10.533%
  • 25%Over 11.533%

Cards

BarnetNorthampton
  • 1.50Cards for2.00
  • 3.75Cards against1.33
  • 5.25Match total3.33
  • 100%Over 2.533%
  • 100%Over 3.533%
  • 75%Over 4.533%
  • 25%Over 5.533%
  • 14.00Fouls committed12.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Salford10519
2Barnet8918
3Crewe10518
4Gillingham10516
21Oldham9-48
22Port Vale8-58
23Northampton8-37
24Crawley Town8-75
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.