Barrow vs Tamworth stats and head-to-head

2026-27, Round 22. Wed, 9 Dec 2026

vKick-off 19:45 UTC

WWWWWLeague form, oldest to newestWLWWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Barrow have 6 scored home results and Tamworth 7 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Barrow at home: 2.00 points per match (6 measured matches); Tamworth away: 0.57 points per match (7 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Barrow scored 1.83 per home match (6 measured matches); Tamworth scored 1.43 away (7). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.55 per club appearance across 310 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 9 of 13 pooled club appearances (69.2%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Barrow: 1 wins; Tamworth: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Barrow at home and Tamworth away.

Barrow at home

Shots per match12.7
On target per match6.2
Goals per match1.8

Tamworth away

Shots per match9.3
On target per match4.0
Goals per match1.4

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 155 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Barrow: 2.73
Expected goals, Tamworth: 1.18
Most likely score: 2-1 (9%)
Three or more goals: 75%
Both clubs score: 65%
Barrow score at least once: 93%
Tamworth score at least once: 69%
Season sample: 13 and 13 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Barrow win–

Draw–

Tamworth win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Barrow goals, columns are Tamworth goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.

01234567

02%2%1%1%

16%6%4%1%

28%9%5%2%1%

37%8%5%2%1%

45%6%3%1%

53%3%2%1%

61%1%1%

71%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.68 goals) and away average (1.42 goals).

Sample. Barrow 13 matches, Tamworth 13, the league 155, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 155 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
1.5	80.9%	19.1%
2.5	60.5%	39.5%
3.5	38.2%	61.8%
4.5	21.0%	79.0%

First-half goals · 155 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	73.2%	26.8%
1.5	33.1%	66.9%
2.5	14.0%	86.0%
3.5	4.5%	95.5%

Corners · 143 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
8.5	64.1%	35.9%
9.5	53.8%	46.2%
10.5	42.8%	57.2%

Yellow + red card events · 143 measured pairs

Line	Over	Under
0.5	97.9%	2.1%
1.5	90.3%	9.7%
2.5	77.9%	22.1%
3.5	64.1%	35.9%
4.5	40.0%	60.0%
5.5	29.0%	71.0%
6.5	11.7%	88.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

Barrow wins

Draws

Tamworth wins

Goals / meeting

3.00

3 goals in 1 meeting · small sample

Both scored

100%

1 of 1 meeting · small sample

Over 1.5

100%

1 of 1 meeting · small sample

Over 2.5

100%

1 of 1 meeting · small sample

Over 3.5

0 of 1 meeting · small sample

Barrow clean sheets

0 of 1 meeting · small sample

Tamworth clean sheets

0 of 1 meeting · small sample

Corners / meeting

–

0 with corner data · small sample

Cards / meeting

–

0 with card data · small sample

Tamworth v BarrowSat, 10 Oct 2026 · National League 2026-271–2HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and away All matches

Barrow at homeLLWWWW

Sat, 3 Octv Wealdstone2–1C 11–3 · Y 3–7
Tue, 29 Septv Scunthorpe3–0C 3–5 · Y 3–4
Sat, 19 Septv Aldershot1–0C 2–8 · Y 2–4
Sat, 5 Septv Sutton3–0C 5–6 · Y 6–4
Fri, 28 Augv Yeovil1–2C 9–3 · Y 1–3
Sat, 15 Augv Hornchurch1–2C 8–3 · Y 2–1

Tamworth awayLLLLLW

Sat, 3 Oct@ Hartlepool1–0C 3–9 · Y 0–0
Sat, 26 Sept@ Aldershot1–5C 7–2 · Y 1–4
Tue, 15 Sept@ Southend1–3C 2–9 · Y 0–1
Sat, 12 Sept@ Harrogate1–3C 6–10 · Y 4–3
Mon, 31 Aug@ Yeovil2–3C 3–4 · Y 1–0
Sat, 22 Aug@ Halifax1–4C 7–2 · Y 1–3

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and away Overall

Barrow at home, Tamworth away

68%
Both teams scored
League 63%
6 + 7 matches
100%
Over 0.5 goals
League 99%
6 + 7 matches
85%
Over 1.5 goals
League 81%
6 + 7 matches
85%
Over 2.5 goals
League 61%
6 + 7 matches
43%
Over 3.5 goals
League 38%
6 + 7 matches
29%
Over 4.5 goals
League 21%
6 + 7 matches
3.6
Avg total goals
League 3.10
6 + 7 matches
60%
1st half over 0.5
League 74%
6 + 7 matches
44%
1st half over 1.5
League 33%
6 + 7 matches
10.9
Corners per match
League 9.91
6 + 7 matches
85%
Corners over 8.5
League 64%
6 + 7 matches
70%
Corners over 9.5
League 54%
6 + 7 matches
62%
Corners over 10.5
League 43%
6 + 7 matches
4.7
Cards per match
League 4.24
6 + 7 matches
63%
Cards over 3.5
League 64%
6 + 7 matches
48%
Cards over 4.5
League 40%
6 + 7 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and away Overall

Barrow at home, Tamworth away

Barrow (home)		Tamworth (away)
8	Position	18
LWWWW	Last 5, oldest to newest	LLLLW
6	Played	7
2.00	Points per match	0.57
67%	Win %	14%
1.83	Scored / match	1.43
0.83	Conceded / match	3.00
2.67	Avg total goals	4.43
50%	Both scored	86%
50%	Clean sheets	14%
0%	Failed to score	0%
–	xG for	–
–	xG against	–

Half by half

BarrowTamworth

0.331st half scored / match0.57
0.171st half conceded / match1.57
1.502nd half scored / match0.86
0.672nd half conceded / match1.43
17%Leading at half-time14%
33%1st half over 0.586%
17%1st half over 1.571%
100%2nd half over 0.586%
67%2nd half over 1.571%
33%Scored in both halves29%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Barrow at home, Tamworth away, this season.

Goals

BarrowTamworth

1.83Scored / match1.43
0.83Conceded / match3.00
2.67Match total / match4.43
100%Scored 1+100%
50%Scored 2+29%
50%Conceded 1+86%
33%Conceded 2+86%
83%Match over 1.586%
83%Match over 2.586%
0%Match over 3.586%

Shots and xG

BarrowTamworth

12.67Shots for9.29
5.67Shots against12.71
6.17On target for4.00
3.00On target against7.86
15%Shot conversion15%

Corners

BarrowTamworth

6.33Corners for4.29
4.67Corners against6.57
11.00Match total10.86
100%Over 7.586%
83%Over 8.586%
83%Over 9.557%
67%Over 10.557%
33%Over 11.543%

Cards

BarrowTamworth

2.83Cards for1.00
3.83Cards against1.71
6.67Match total2.71
100%Over 2.543%
83%Over 3.543%
67%Over 4.529%
67%Over 5.514%
12.00Fouls committed10.57

The table, 2026-27

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
6	Altrincham	13	1	24
7	Fylde	13	6	23
8	Barrow	13	6	21
9	Hornchurch	13	-4	21
10	Halifax	13	7	20
16	Forest Green	12	-3	15
17	Eastleigh	13	-6	15
18	Tamworth	13	-9	14
19	Wealdstone	13	-7	12
20	Hartlepool	13	-7	12

Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.