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Belgrano v Barracas Central, Liga Profesional Argentina, Sun, 1 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026, Round 15. Sun, 1 Nov 2026

BelgranoHome
vKick-off 20:00 UTC
Barracas CentralAway
DDDWWLeague form, oldest to newestDDLWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Belgrano have 15 scored home results and Barracas Central 14 scored away results stored in 2026. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Belgrano at home: 1.80 points per match (15 measured matches); Barracas Central away: 1.50 points per match (14 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Belgrano scored 1.40 per home match (15 measured matches); Barracas Central scored 0.86 away (14). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.07 per club appearance across 854 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 13 of 29 pooled club appearances (44.8%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 5. Belgrano: 0 wins; Barracas Central: 1 wins; draws: 4.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 427 league matches, 2026

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Belgrano
1.04
Expected goals, Barracas Central
0.54
Most likely score
1-0 (21%)
Three or more goals
21%
Both clubs score
27%
Belgrano score at least once
65%
Barracas Central score at least once
42%
Season sample
31 and 28 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Belgrano win–
Draw–
Barracas Central win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Belgrano goals, columns are Barracas Central goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
020%11%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
121%12%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
211%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
34%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.20 goals) and away average (0.94 goals).

Sample. Belgrano 31 matches, Barracas Central 28, the league 427, all 2026, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 427 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.564.8%35.2%
2.537.8%62.2%
3.516.1%83.9%
4.56.1%93.9%

First-half goals · 403 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.561.7%38.3%
1.523.2%76.8%
2.55.7%94.3%
3.51.2%98.8%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

5 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Belgrano wins
4
Draws
1
Barracas Central wins
Goals / meeting
1.60
8 goals in 5 meetings
Both scored
60%
3 of 5 meetings
Over 1.5
80%
4 of 5 meetings
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 5 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 5 meetings
Belgrano clean sheets
20%
1 of 5 meetings
Barracas Central clean sheets
40%
2 of 5 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Barracas Central v BelgranoMon, 20 Apr 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina 20260–0HT 0–0
  2. Barracas Central v BelgranoMon, 29 Sept 2025 · Liga Profesional Argentina 20251–1
  3. Belgrano v Barracas CentralMon, 17 Mar 2025 · Liga Profesional Argentina 20251–1
  4. Barracas Central v BelgranoThu, 21 Nov 2024 · Liga Profesional Argentina 20241–1
  5. Belgrano v Barracas CentralFri, 7 Jul 2023 · Liga Profesional Argentina 20230–2

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Belgrano at homeWLWLDW
Barracas Central awayWLLDDW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Belgrano at home, Barracas Central away
  • 45%
    Both teams scored
    League 47%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 86%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 88%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 62%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 65%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 31%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 38%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 10%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 16%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 4%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 6%
    15 + 14 matches
  • 1.9
    Avg total goals
    League 2.14
    15 + 14 matches
  • 59%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 62%
    14 + 13 matches
  • 11%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 23%
    14 + 13 matches

Stored season context, 2026

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026

Home and awayOverall
Belgrano at home, Barracas Central away
Belgrano (home)Barracas Central (away)
1Position15
LWLDWLast 5, oldest to newestWLDDW
15Played14
1.80Points per match1.50
53%Win %36%
1.40Scored / match0.86
0.73Conceded / match0.86
2.13Avg total goals1.71
47%Both scored43%
40%Clean sheets36%
20%Failed to score43%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

BelgranoBarracas Central
  • 0.431st half scored / match0.46
  • 0.291st half conceded / match0.31
  • 0.932nd half scored / match0.46
  • 0.502nd half conceded / match0.46
  • 36%Leading at half-time31%
  • 64%1st half over 0.554%
  • 7%1st half over 1.515%
  • 71%2nd half over 0.562%
  • 57%2nd half over 1.515%
  • 29%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Belgrano at home, Barracas Central away, this season.

Goals

BelgranoBarracas Central
  • 1.40Scored / match0.86
  • 0.73Conceded / match0.86
  • 2.13Match total / match1.71
  • 80%Scored 1+57%
  • 40%Scored 2+21%
  • 60%Conceded 1+64%
  • 13%Conceded 2+21%
  • 67%Match over 1.557%
  • 40%Match over 2.521%
  • 13%Match over 3.57%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Liga Profesional Argentina matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.