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Benfica v Sporting Braga, Primeira Liga, Sun, 13 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 14. Sun, 13 Dec 2026

BenficaHome
vKick-off 11:00 UTC
Sporting BragaAway
WWWLLLeague form, oldest to newestWLWDL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Estádio da Luz. Photo: Massimo Catarinella, CC BY 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Benfica have 3 scored home results and Sporting Braga 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Benfica at home: 2.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Sporting Braga away: 1.25 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Benfica scored 2.33 per home match (3 measured matches); Sporting Braga scored 1.25 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.38 per club appearance across 174 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 7 pooled club appearances (85.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Benfica at home and Sporting Braga away.

Benfica at home

xG 2.69
  • Shots per match23.3
  • On target per match8.0
  • Goals per match2.3

Sporting Braga away

  • Shots per match–
  • On target per match–
  • Goals per match1.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 87 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Benfica
2.30
Expected goals, Sporting Braga
1.07
Most likely score
2-1 (10%)
Three or more goals
65%
Both clubs score
59%
Benfica score at least once
90%
Sporting Braga score at least once
66%
Season sample
8 and 7 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Benfica win–
Draw–
Sporting Braga win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Benfica goals, columns are Sporting Braga goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
03%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
18%8%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
29%10%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
37%7%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.33 goals) and away average (1.43 goals).

Sample. Benfica 8 matches, Sporting Braga 7, the league 87, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 87 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.4%23.6%
2.556.2%43.8%
3.537.1%62.9%
4.59.0%91.0%

First-half goals · 87 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.569.7%30.3%
1.539.3%60.7%
2.512.4%87.6%
3.54.5%95.5%

Corners · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.546.9%53.1%
9.537.5%62.5%
10.525.0%75.0%

Yellow + red card events · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.593.8%6.3%
1.590.6%9.4%
2.581.3%18.8%
3.567.2%32.8%
4.546.9%53.1%
5.526.6%73.4%
6.520.3%79.7%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Benfica at homeWWDWWW
Sporting Braga awayDDDWLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Benfica at home, Sporting Braga away
  • 88%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 94%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 56%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 46%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 37%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 8%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 3.1
    Avg total goals
    League 2.76
    3 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 70%
    3 + 4 matches
  • 42%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 39%
    3 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Benfica at home, Sporting Braga away
Benfica (home)Sporting Braga (away)
5Position12
DWWLast 5, oldest to newestDWLD
3Played4
2.33Points per match1.25
67%Win %25%
2.33Scored / match1.25
1.33Conceded / match1.25
3.67Avg total goals2.50
100%Both scored75%
0%Clean sheets25%
0%Failed to score25%
2.69xG for–
0.88xG against–

Half by half

BenficaSporting Braga
  • 1.001st half scored / match0.50
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.75
  • 1.332nd half scored / match0.75
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.50
  • 67%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.575%
  • 33%1st half over 1.550%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 100%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 100%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Benfica at home, Sporting Braga away, this season.

Goals

BenficaSporting Braga
  • 2.33Scored / match1.25
  • 1.33Conceded / match1.25
  • 3.67Match total / match2.50
  • 100%Scored 1+75%
  • 100%Scored 2+50%
  • 100%Conceded 1+75%
  • 33%Conceded 2+50%
  • 100%Match over 1.575%
  • 100%Match over 2.575%
  • 67%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

BenficaSporting Braga
  • 23.33Shots for–
  • 5.33Shots against–
  • 8.00On target for–
  • 2.67On target against–
  • 10%Shot conversion–
  • 2.69xG for–
  • 0.88xG against–

Corners

BenficaSporting Braga
  • 11.00Corners for–
  • 0.67Corners against–
  • 11.67Match total–
  • 100%Over 7.5–
  • 100%Over 8.5–
  • 67%Over 9.5–
  • 67%Over 10.5–
  • 67%Over 11.5–

Cards

BenficaSporting Braga
  • 1.33Cards for–
  • 2.67Cards against–
  • 4.00Match total–
  • 67%Over 2.5–
  • 67%Over 3.5–
  • 67%Over 4.5–
  • 33%Over 5.5–
  • 13.00Fouls committed–

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
3Santa Clara9819
4Sporting CP81118
5Benfica81316
6Sp Lisbon7915
7Estrela9114
10Sp Braga6211
11Gil Vicente7111
12Sporting Braga7011
13Moreirense10-89
14Famalicao828
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Primeira Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.