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MatchDaySync

Blackburn v Watford, EFL Championship, Sat, 1 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 46. Sat, 1 May 2027

BlackburnHome
vKick-off 11:30 UTC
WatfordAway
LLWDWLeague form, oldest to newestLWLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Ewood Park. Photo: Ronnie Macdonald from Chelmsford, United Kingdom, CC BY 2.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Blackburn have 5 scored home results and Watford 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Blackburn at home: 1.80 points per match (5 measured matches); Watford away: 0.25 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Blackburn scored 1.80 per home match (5 measured matches); Watford scored 0.25 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.42 per club appearance across 212 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 9 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Blackburn: 4 wins; Watford: 4 wins; draws: 2.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Blackburn at home and Watford away.

Blackburn at home

xG 1.17
  • Shots per match13.8
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match1.8

Watford away

xG 0.83
  • Shots per match10.0
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match0.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 106 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Blackburn
1.89
Expected goals, Watford
0.70
Most likely score
1-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
48%
Both clubs score
43%
Blackburn score at least once
85%
Watford score at least once
50%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Blackburn win–
Draw–
Watford win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Blackburn goals, columns are Watford goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
08%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
114%10%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
213%9%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
38%6%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.58 goals) and away average (1.26 goals).

Sample. Blackburn 9 matches, Watford 9, the league 106, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.7%21.3%
2.562.0%38.0%
3.534.3%65.7%
4.510.2%89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.578.7%21.3%
1.539.8%60.2%
2.516.7%83.3%
3.58.3%91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.570.1%29.9%
9.558.8%41.2%
10.549.5%50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.9%3.1%
1.592.8%7.2%
2.575.3%24.7%
3.548.5%51.5%
4.536.1%63.9%
5.518.6%81.4%
6.512.4%87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

4
Blackburn wins
2
Draws
4
Watford wins
Goals / meeting
2.40
24 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Blackburn clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Watford clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.40
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.60
10 with card data
  1. Blackburn v WatfordSat, 24 Jan 2026 · EFL Championship 2025-261–1HT 1–1
  2. Watford v BlackburnSat, 13 Sept 2025 · EFL Championship 2025-260–1HT 0–0
  3. Blackburn v WatfordSat, 26 Apr 2025 · EFL Championship 2024-252–1HT 0–0
  4. Watford v BlackburnSat, 26 Oct 2024 · EFL Championship 2024-251–0HT 0–0
  5. Blackburn v WatfordSat, 23 Dec 2023 · EFL Championship 2023-241–2HT 1–0
  6. Watford v BlackburnSun, 27 Aug 2023 · EFL Championship 2023-240–1HT 0–0
  7. Watford v BlackburnSat, 11 Feb 2023 · EFL Championship 2022-231–1HT 0–1
  8. Blackburn v WatfordTue, 13 Sept 2022 · EFL Championship 2022-232–0HT 1–0
  9. Blackburn v WatfordWed, 24 Feb 2021 · EFL Championship 2020-212–3HT 1–2
  10. Watford v BlackburnWed, 21 Oct 2020 · EFL Championship 2020-213–1HT 2–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Blackburn at homeWLLLWW
Watford awayLLDLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Blackburn at home, Watford away
  • 63%
    Both teams scored
    League 67%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 10%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 9%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 2.4
    Avg total goals
    League 2.85
    5 + 4 matches
  • 90%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 79%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 45%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    5 + 4 matches
  • 9.1
    Corners per match
    League 10.60
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 71%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 59%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 5.3
    Cards per match
    League 3.92
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 48%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 36%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Blackburn at home, Watford away
Blackburn (home)Watford (away)
13Position20
WLLWWLast 5, oldest to newestDLLL
5Played4
1.80Points per match0.25
60%Win %0%
1.80Scored / match0.25
1.40Conceded / match1.25
3.20Avg total goals1.50
100%Both scored25%
0%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score75%
1.17xG for0.83
1.27xG against1.84

Half by half

BlackburnWatford
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.25
  • 0.601st half conceded / match1.25
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.00
  • 0.802nd half conceded / match0.00
  • 40%Leading at half-time0%
  • 80%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 40%1st half over 1.550%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.50%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 20%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Blackburn at home, Watford away, this season.

Goals

BlackburnWatford
  • 1.80Scored / match0.25
  • 1.40Conceded / match1.25
  • 3.20Match total / match1.50
  • 100%Scored 1+25%
  • 60%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 40%Conceded 2+25%
  • 100%Match over 1.550%
  • 100%Match over 2.50%
  • 20%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

BlackburnWatford
  • 13.75Shots for10.00
  • 16.00Shots against14.00
  • 4.00On target for3.25
  • 3.75On target against5.25
  • 13%Shot conversion3%
  • 1.17xG for0.83
  • 1.27xG against1.84

Corners

BlackburnWatford
  • 4.50Corners for3.75
  • 4.50Corners against5.50
  • 9.00Match total9.25
  • 75%Over 7.575%
  • 50%Over 8.550%
  • 50%Over 9.525%
  • 25%Over 10.525%
  • 25%Over 11.525%

Cards

BlackburnWatford
  • 3.25Cards for3.00
  • 2.00Cards against2.25
  • 5.25Match total5.25
  • 100%Over 2.575%
  • 75%Over 3.575%
  • 75%Over 4.550%
  • 25%Over 5.550%
  • 10.00Fouls committed12.75

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
11Bristol City9-114
12Charlton9-313
13Blackburn9112
14Sheffield United9112
15Wrexham9-311
18Norwich9-29
19Portsmouth7-18
20Watford9-78
21Cardiff9-37
22Burnley9-47
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL Championship matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.