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Boreham Wood v Barrow, National League, Sat, 17 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 45. Sat, 17 Apr 2027

Boreham WoodHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
BarrowAway
WWWWWLeague form, oldest to newestWWWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Boreham Wood have 6 scored home results and Barrow 7 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Boreham Wood at home: 2.67 points per match (6 measured matches); Barrow away: 1.29 points per match (7 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Boreham Wood scored 2.83 per home match (6 measured matches); Barrow scored 1.57 away (7). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.55 per club appearance across 310 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 11 of 13 pooled club appearances (84.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 6. Boreham Wood: 1 wins; Barrow: 2 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Boreham Wood at home and Barrow away.

Boreham Wood at home

  • Shots per match11.8
  • On target per match7.2
  • Goals per match2.8

Barrow away

  • Shots per match7.5
  • On target per match4.7
  • Goals per match1.6

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 155 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Boreham Wood
2.25
Expected goals, Barrow
1.00
Most likely score
2-1 (10%)
Three or more goals
63%
Both clubs score
57%
Boreham Wood score at least once
89%
Barrow score at least once
63%
Season sample
13 and 13 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Boreham Wood win–
Draw–
Barrow win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Boreham Wood goals, columns are Barrow goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
04%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%10%5%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
37%7%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
44%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.68 goals) and away average (1.42 goals).

Sample. Boreham Wood 13 matches, Barrow 13, the league 155, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 155 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.580.9%19.1%
2.560.5%39.5%
3.538.2%61.8%
4.521.0%79.0%

First-half goals · 155 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.573.2%26.8%
1.533.1%66.9%
2.514.0%86.0%
3.54.5%95.5%

Corners · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.564.1%35.9%
9.553.8%46.2%
10.542.8%57.2%

Yellow + red card events · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.597.9%2.1%
1.590.3%9.7%
2.577.9%22.1%
3.564.1%35.9%
4.540.0%60.0%
5.529.0%71.0%
6.511.7%88.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

6 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Boreham Wood wins
3
Draws
2
Barrow wins
Goals / meeting
2.33
14 goals in 6 meetings
Both scored
83%
5 of 6 meetings
Over 1.5
83%
5 of 6 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
3 of 6 meetings
Over 3.5
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Boreham Wood clean sheets
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Barrow clean sheets
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
3.17
6 with card data
  1. Boreham Wood v BarrowSat, 25 Jan 2020 · National League 2019-201–1HT 0–1
  2. Barrow v Boreham WoodTue, 8 Oct 2019 · National League 2019-203–1HT 2–1
  3. Barrow v Boreham WoodSat, 30 Mar 2019 · National League 2018-191–2HT 1–2
  4. Boreham Wood v BarrowSat, 15 Sept 2018 · National League 2018-191–1HT 0–0
  5. Boreham Wood v BarrowFri, 30 Mar 2018 · National League 2017-180–0HT 0–0
  6. Barrow v Boreham WoodSat, 2 Sept 2017 · National League 2017-182–1HT 2–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Boreham Wood at homeDWWWWW
Barrow awayDDDLWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Boreham Wood at home, Barrow away
  • 86%
    Both teams scored
    League 63%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 99%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 93%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 81%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 79%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 61%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 55%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 38%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 24%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 21%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 3.7
    Avg total goals
    League 3.10
    6 + 7 matches
  • 70%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 74%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 46%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 33%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 9.5
    Corners per match
    League 9.91
    6 + 6 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 64%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 54%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 25%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 43%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 4.9
    Cards per match
    League 4.24
    6 + 6 matches
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 64%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 58%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 40%
    6 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Boreham Wood at home, Barrow away
Boreham Wood (home)Barrow (away)
1Position8
WWWWWLast 5, oldest to newestDDLWW
6Played7
2.67Points per match1.29
83%Win %29%
2.83Scored / match1.57
1.33Conceded / match1.57
4.17Avg total goals3.14
100%Both scored71%
0%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score29%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Boreham WoodBarrow
  • 0.831st half scored / match0.57
  • 0.671st half conceded / match0.43
  • 2.002nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match1.14
  • 33%Leading at half-time14%
  • 83%1st half over 0.557%
  • 50%1st half over 1.543%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.586%
  • 100%2nd half over 1.557%
  • 50%Scored in both halves14%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Boreham Wood at home, Barrow away, this season.

Goals

Boreham WoodBarrow
  • 2.83Scored / match1.57
  • 1.33Conceded / match1.57
  • 4.17Match total / match3.14
  • 100%Scored 1+71%
  • 100%Scored 2+57%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 17%Conceded 2+57%
  • 100%Match over 1.586%
  • 100%Match over 2.557%
  • 67%Match over 3.543%

Shots and xG

Boreham WoodBarrow
  • 11.83Shots for7.50
  • 5.67Shots against8.00
  • 7.17On target for4.67
  • 3.33On target against5.00
  • 24%Shot conversion20%

Corners

Boreham WoodBarrow
  • 6.33Corners for6.50
  • 1.83Corners against4.33
  • 8.17Match total10.83
  • 67%Over 7.583%
  • 50%Over 8.583%
  • 17%Over 9.567%
  • 17%Over 10.533%
  • 17%Over 11.517%

Cards

Boreham WoodBarrow
  • 2.17Cards for3.00
  • 2.33Cards against2.33
  • 4.50Match total5.33
  • 83%Over 2.5100%
  • 83%Over 3.567%
  • 50%Over 4.567%
  • 33%Over 5.567%
  • 9.33Fouls committed16.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Boreham Wood132135
2Harrogate131228
3Southend131227
6Altrincham13124
7Fylde13623
8Barrow13621
9Hornchurch13-421
10Halifax13720
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.