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Boreham Wood v Gateshead, National League, Sat, 28 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 20. Sat, 28 Nov 2026

Boreham WoodHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
GatesheadAway
WWWWWLeague form, oldest to newestLLLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Boreham Wood have 6 scored home results and Gateshead 7 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Boreham Wood at home: 2.67 points per match (6 measured matches); Gateshead away: 0.00 points per match (7 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Boreham Wood scored 2.83 per home match (6 measured matches); Gateshead scored 0.43 away (7). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.55 per club appearance across 310 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 9 of 13 pooled club appearances (69.2%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Boreham Wood: 3 wins; Gateshead: 1 wins; draws: 6.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Boreham Wood at home and Gateshead away.

Boreham Wood at home

  • Shots per match11.8
  • On target per match7.2
  • Goals per match2.8

Gateshead away

  • Shots per match6.0
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match0.4

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 155 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Boreham Wood
4.36
Expected goals, Gateshead
0.36
Most likely score
4-0 (14%)
Three or more goals
84%
Both clubs score
30%
Boreham Wood score at least once
99%
Gateshead score at least once
31%
Season sample
13 and 13 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Boreham Wood win–
Draw–
Gateshead win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Boreham Wood goals, columns are Gateshead goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
01%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
14%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
29%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
313%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
414%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
513%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
69%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
76%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.68 goals) and away average (1.42 goals).

Sample. Boreham Wood 13 matches, Gateshead 13, the league 155, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 155 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.580.9%19.1%
2.560.5%39.5%
3.538.2%61.8%
4.521.0%79.0%

First-half goals · 155 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.573.2%26.8%
1.533.1%66.9%
2.514.0%86.0%
3.54.5%95.5%

Corners · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.564.1%35.9%
9.553.8%46.2%
10.542.8%57.2%

Yellow + red card events · 143 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.597.9%2.1%
1.590.3%9.7%
2.577.9%22.1%
3.564.1%35.9%
4.540.0%60.0%
5.529.0%71.0%
6.511.7%88.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

3
Boreham Wood wins
6
Draws
1
Gateshead wins
Goals / meeting
2.50
25 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
100%
10 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Boreham Wood clean sheets
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Gateshead clean sheets
10%
1 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
3.20
10 with card data
  1. Boreham Wood v GatesheadSat, 21 Mar 2026 · National League 2025-263–0HT 2–0
  2. Gateshead v Boreham WoodSat, 22 Nov 2025 · National League 2025-260–3HT 0–1
  3. Boreham Wood v GatesheadSat, 2 Mar 2024 · National League 2023-241–1HT 1–0
  4. Gateshead v Boreham WoodSat, 5 Aug 2023 · National League 2023-242–2HT 2–0
  5. Boreham Wood v GatesheadTue, 25 Apr 2023 · National League 2022-230–2HT 0–1
  6. Gateshead v Boreham WoodSat, 17 Sept 2022 · National League 2022-231–1HT 1–0
  7. Gateshead v Boreham WoodSat, 26 Jan 2019 · National League 2018-191–1HT 0–1
  8. Boreham Wood v GatesheadTue, 14 Aug 2018 · National League 2018-191–1HT 1–0
  9. Boreham Wood v GatesheadSat, 17 Feb 2018 · National League 2017-182–1HT 1–0
  10. Gateshead v Boreham WoodSat, 30 Sept 2017 · National League 2017-181–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Boreham Wood at homeDWWWWW
Gateshead awayLLLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Boreham Wood at home, Gateshead away
  • 71%
    Both teams scored
    League 63%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 99%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 93%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 81%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 93%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 61%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 55%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 38%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 24%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 21%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 3.7
    Avg total goals
    League 3.10
    6 + 7 matches
  • 85%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 74%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 32%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 33%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 7.8
    Corners per match
    League 9.91
    6 + 6 matches
  • 42%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 64%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 17%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 54%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 17%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 43%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 4.7
    Cards per match
    League 4.24
    6 + 6 matches
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 64%
    6 + 6 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 40%
    6 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Boreham Wood at home, Gateshead away
Boreham Wood (home)Gateshead (away)
1Position24
WWWWWLast 5, oldest to newestLLLLL
6Played7
2.67Points per match0.00
83%Win %0%
2.83Scored / match0.43
1.33Conceded / match2.86
4.17Avg total goals3.29
100%Both scored43%
0%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score57%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Boreham WoodGateshead
  • 0.831st half scored / match0.14
  • 0.671st half conceded / match0.86
  • 2.002nd half scored / match0.29
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match2.00
  • 33%Leading at half-time14%
  • 83%1st half over 0.586%
  • 50%1st half over 1.514%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.586%
  • 100%2nd half over 1.586%
  • 50%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Boreham Wood at home, Gateshead away, this season.

Goals

Boreham WoodGateshead
  • 2.83Scored / match0.43
  • 1.33Conceded / match2.86
  • 4.17Match total / match3.29
  • 100%Scored 1+43%
  • 100%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 17%Conceded 2+86%
  • 100%Match over 1.586%
  • 100%Match over 2.586%
  • 67%Match over 3.543%

Shots and xG

Boreham WoodGateshead
  • 11.83Shots for6.00
  • 5.67Shots against13.00
  • 7.17On target for3.33
  • 3.33On target against6.50
  • 24%Shot conversion6%

Corners

Boreham WoodGateshead
  • 6.33Corners for3.00
  • 1.83Corners against4.50
  • 8.17Match total7.50
  • 67%Over 7.533%
  • 50%Over 8.533%
  • 17%Over 9.517%
  • 17%Over 10.517%
  • 17%Over 11.517%

Cards

Boreham WoodGateshead
  • 2.17Cards for2.67
  • 2.33Cards against2.17
  • 4.50Match total4.83
  • 83%Over 2.567%
  • 83%Over 3.567%
  • 50%Over 4.550%
  • 33%Over 5.550%
  • 9.33Fouls committed12.83

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Boreham Wood132135
2Harrogate131228
3Southend131227
22Scunthorpe12-610
23Solihull13-227
24Gateshead13-234
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.