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Brackley Town v Chester, National League North, Sat, 7 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 16. Sat, 7 Nov 2026

Brackley TownHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
ChesterAway
LLDWWLeague form, oldest to newestDLLWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Brackley Town have 7 scored home results and Chester 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Brackley Town at home: 2.00 points per match (7 measured matches); Chester away: 1.60 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Brackley Town scored 1.57 per home match (7 measured matches); Chester scored 1.20 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.39 per club appearance across 266 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 9 of 12 pooled club appearances (75.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 133 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Brackley Town
0.92
Expected goals, Chester
1.39
Most likely score
0-1 (14%)
Three or more goals
41%
Both clubs score
45%
Brackley Town score at least once
60%
Chester score at least once
75%
Season sample
12 and 11 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Brackley Town win–
Draw–
Chester win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Brackley Town goals, columns are Chester goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
010%14%10%4%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%13%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
24%6%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.63 goals) and away average (1.14 goals).

Sample. Brackley Town 12 matches, Chester 11, the league 133, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.575.6%24.4%
2.554.8%45.2%
3.525.9%74.1%
4.516.3%83.7%

First-half goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.570.4%29.6%
1.532.6%67.4%
2.512.6%87.4%
3.53.7%96.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Brackley Town at homeWWDWLW
Chester awayWDDLWL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Brackley Town at home, Chester away
  • 76%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 76%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 41%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 24%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 14%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 2.6
    Avg total goals
    League 2.77
    7 + 5 matches
  • 83%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 71%
    7 + 5 matches
  • 41%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 32%
    7 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Brackley Town at home, Chester away
Brackley Town (home)Chester (away)
8Position4
WWDWWLast 5, oldest to newestWWDDL
7Played5
2.00Points per match1.60
57%Win %40%
1.57Scored / match1.20
1.29Conceded / match1.20
2.86Avg total goals2.40
71%Both scored80%
14%Clean sheets20%
14%Failed to score0%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Brackley TownChester
  • 1.001st half scored / match0.80
  • 0.571st half conceded / match0.60
  • 0.572nd half scored / match0.40
  • 0.712nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 57%Leading at half-time40%
  • 86%1st half over 0.580%
  • 43%1st half over 1.540%
  • 86%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 43%2nd half over 1.520%
  • 43%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Brackley Town at home, Chester away, this season.

Goals

Brackley TownChester
  • 1.57Scored / match1.20
  • 1.29Conceded / match1.20
  • 2.86Match total / match2.40
  • 86%Scored 1+100%
  • 43%Scored 2+20%
  • 86%Conceded 1+80%
  • 43%Conceded 2+20%
  • 86%Match over 1.580%
  • 43%Match over 2.540%
  • 29%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League North matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.