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Brest v Nice, Ligue 1, Fri, 23 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 8. Fri, 23 Oct 2026

BrestHome
vKick-off 18:45 UTC
NiceAway
DWLLWLeague form, oldest to newestDLDLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Brest have 3 scored home results and Nice 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Brest at home: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Nice away: 0.00 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Brest scored 2.33 per home match (3 measured matches); Nice scored 0.00 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 102 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 2 of 5 pooled club appearances (40.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Brest: 2 wins; Nice: 5 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Brest at home and Nice away.

Brest at home

xG 1.99
  • Shots per match21.0
  • On target per match5.5
  • Goals per match2.3

Nice away

xG 0.87
  • Shots per match13.5
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match0.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 51 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Brest
1.90
Expected goals, Nice
0.54
Most likely score
1-0 (17%)
Three or more goals
44%
Both clubs score
35%
Brest score at least once
85%
Nice score at least once
41%
Season sample
6 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Brest win–
Draw–
Nice win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Brest goals, columns are Nice goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
09%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
117%9%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
216%8%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
310%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
45%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
52%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.65 goals) and away average (1.24 goals).

Sample. Brest 6 matches, Nice 5, the league 51, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 4 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 51 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.575.5%24.5%
2.560.4%39.6%
3.535.8%64.2%
4.513.2%86.8%

First-half goals · 51 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.569.8%30.2%
1.534.0%66.0%
2.515.1%84.9%
3.53.8%96.2%

Corners · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.563.8%36.2%
9.555.3%44.7%
10.540.4%59.6%

Yellow + red card events · 45 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.595.7%4.3%
1.585.1%14.9%
2.561.7%38.3%
3.546.8%53.2%
4.525.5%74.5%
5.510.6%89.4%
6.52.1%97.9%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Brest wins
3
Draws
5
Nice wins
Goals / meeting
2.40
24 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Brest clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Nice clean sheets
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.40
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.90
10 with card data
  1. Nice v BrestSun, 1 Feb 2026 · Ligue 1 2025-262–2HT 0–2
  2. Brest v NiceSat, 20 Sept 2025 · Ligue 1 2025-264–1HT 2–1
  3. Nice v BrestSat, 17 May 2025 · Ligue 1 2024-256–0HT 3–0
  4. Brest v NiceSat, 2 Nov 2024 · Ligue 1 2024-250–1HT 0–1
  5. Brest v NiceSun, 4 Feb 2024 · Ligue 1 2023-240–0HT 0–0
  6. Nice v BrestSun, 1 Oct 2023 · Ligue 1 2023-240–0HT 0–0
  7. Brest v NiceSun, 16 Apr 2023 · Ligue 1 2022-231–0HT 1–0
  8. Nice v BrestSun, 6 Nov 2022 · Ligue 1 2022-231–0HT 0–0
  9. Brest v NiceSun, 9 Jan 2022 · Ligue 1 2021-220–3HT 0–1
  10. Nice v BrestSat, 2 Oct 2021 · Ligue 1 2021-222–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Brest at homeDLDDLW
Nice awayWDLLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Brest at home, Nice away
  • 33%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 92%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 76%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 61%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 35%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.88
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 71%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 33%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 7.8
    Corners per match
    League 9.62
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 64%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 56%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 40%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 2.8
    Cards per match
    League 3.27
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 47%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 24%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Brest at home, Nice away
Brest (home)Nice (away)
7Position15
DLWLast 5, oldest to newestLL
3Played2
1.33Points per match0.00
33%Win %0%
2.33Scored / match0.00
1.33Conceded / match2.00
3.67Avg total goals2.00
67%Both scored0%
0%Clean sheets0%
33%Failed to score100%
1.99xG for0.87
1.14xG against2.31

Half by half

BrestNice
  • 1.671st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.671st half conceded / match0.50
  • 0.672nd half scored / match0.00
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match1.50
  • 33%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.550%
  • 67%1st half over 1.50%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 67%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Brest at home, Nice away, this season.

Goals

BrestNice
  • 2.33Scored / match0.00
  • 1.33Conceded / match2.00
  • 3.67Match total / match2.00
  • 67%Scored 1+0%
  • 67%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+100%
  • 33%Conceded 2+50%
  • 67%Match over 1.550%
  • 67%Match over 2.550%
  • 67%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

BrestNice
  • 21.00Shots for13.50
  • 10.50Shots against13.00
  • 5.50On target for4.00
  • 4.50On target against5.50
  • 5%Shot conversion0%
  • 1.99xG for0.87
  • 1.14xG against2.31

Corners

BrestNice
  • 5.00Corners for6.00
  • 2.00Corners against2.50
  • 7.00Match total8.50
  • 50%Over 7.550%
  • 50%Over 8.550%
  • 0%Over 9.550%
  • 0%Over 10.550%
  • 0%Over 11.50%

Cards

BrestNice
  • 1.50Cards for1.00
  • 2.50Cards against0.50
  • 4.00Match total1.50
  • 100%Over 2.50%
  • 50%Over 3.50%
  • 50%Over 4.50%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 16.00Fouls committed7.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
5Paris SG6311
6Rennes5-110
7Brest638
8Lorient608
9Lens617
13Toulouse6-26
14Auxerre5-56
15Nice5-35
16Troyes5-74
17Marseille5-13
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Ligue 1 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.