Skip to content
MatchDaySync

Brighton v Coventry, Premier League, Sat, 20 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 30. Sat, 20 Mar 2027

BrightonHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
CoventryAway
LDWWWLeague form, oldest to newestLLLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Brighton Community Stadium. Photo: Dominic Alves from Brighton, England, CC BY 2.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Brighton have 3 scored home results and Coventry 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Brighton at home: 2.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Coventry away: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Brighton scored 2.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Coventry scored 0.33 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 1 of 6 pooled club appearances (16.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Brighton: 1 wins; Coventry: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Brighton at home and Coventry away.

Brighton at home

xG 2.43
  • Shots per match19.3
  • On target per match5.3
  • Goals per match2.7

Coventry away

xG 0.75
  • Shots per match8.7
  • On target per match2.3
  • Goals per match0.3

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Brighton
4.56
Expected goals, Coventry
0.11
Most likely score
4-0 (19%)
Three or more goals
83%
Both clubs score
10%
Brighton score at least once
99%
Coventry score at least once
10%
Season sample
6 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Brighton win–
Draw–
Coventry win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Brighton goals, columns are Coventry goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
01%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
15%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
211%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
316%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
419%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
517%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
613%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
78%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Brighton 6 matches, Coventry 5, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.1%25.9%
2.553.4%46.6%
3.534.5%65.5%
4.520.7%79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.6%41.4%
1.537.9%62.1%
2.517.2%82.8%
3.56.9%93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.1%51.9%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.536.5%63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.588.5%11.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.538.5%61.5%
5.521.2%78.8%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Brighton wins
0
Draws
0
Coventry wins
Goals / meeting
5.00
5 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Brighton clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Coventry clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
8.00
1 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
1.00
1 with card data · small sample
  1. Coventry v BrightonSun, 13 Sept 2026 · Premier League 2026-270–5HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Brighton at homeWLWWDW
Coventry awayDWLWLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Brighton at home, Coventry away
  • 17%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 2.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.87
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 9.7
    Corners per match
    League 9.38
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 48%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 36%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 4.0
    Cards per match
    League 3.88
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Brighton at home, Coventry away
Brighton (home)Coventry (away)
3Position19
WDWLast 5, oldest to newestLLW
3Played3
2.33Points per match1.00
67%Win %33%
2.67Scored / match0.33
0.33Conceded / match1.33
3.00Avg total goals1.67
33%Both scored0%
67%Clean sheets33%
0%Failed to score67%
2.43xG for0.75
1.47xG against1.70

Half by half

BrightonCoventry
  • 2.001st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.331st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.672nd half scored / match0.33
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 67%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.567%
  • 67%1st half over 1.533%
  • 67%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 33%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Brighton at home, Coventry away, this season.

Goals

BrightonCoventry
  • 2.67Scored / match0.33
  • 0.33Conceded / match1.33
  • 3.00Match total / match1.67
  • 100%Scored 1+33%
  • 67%Scored 2+0%
  • 33%Conceded 1+67%
  • 0%Conceded 2+33%
  • 100%Match over 1.533%
  • 67%Match over 2.533%
  • 33%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

BrightonCoventry
  • 19.33Shots for8.67
  • 9.00Shots against19.67
  • 5.33On target for2.33
  • 2.33On target against4.33
  • 14%Shot conversion4%
  • 2.43xG for0.75
  • 1.47xG against1.70

Corners

BrightonCoventry
  • 5.67Corners for3.00
  • 4.67Corners against6.00
  • 10.33Match total9.00
  • 67%Over 7.5100%
  • 67%Over 8.567%
  • 67%Over 9.533%
  • 67%Over 10.50%
  • 33%Over 11.50%

Cards

BrightonCoventry
  • 3.00Cards for1.00
  • 2.67Cards against1.33
  • 5.67Match total2.33
  • 100%Over 2.533%
  • 100%Over 3.50%
  • 100%Over 4.50%
  • 67%Over 5.50%
  • 12.67Fouls committed13.33

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Man City5815
2Arsenal6515
3Brighton61313
4Brentford6610
5Chelsea6210
17Bournemouth6-63
18Tottenham6-63
19Coventry5-93
20Fulham6-42
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.