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Bristol City v QPR, EFL Championship, Sat, 20 Mar 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 39. Sat, 20 Mar 2027

Bristol CityHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
QPRAway
WLLWDLeague form, oldest to newestLDDDD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Bristol City have 4 scored home results and QPR 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Bristol City at home: 1.50 points per match (4 measured matches); QPR away: 1.80 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Bristol City scored 0.75 per home match (4 measured matches); QPR scored 1.40 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.42 per club appearance across 212 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 9 pooled club appearances (55.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Bristol City: 2 wins; QPR: 4 wins; draws: 4.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Bristol City at home and QPR away.

Bristol City at home

xG 1.06
  • Shots per match13.0
  • On target per match3.5
  • Goals per match0.8

QPR away

xG 1.29
  • Shots per match12.8
  • On target per match4.3
  • Goals per match1.4

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 106 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Bristol City
0.93
Expected goals, QPR
1.10
Most likely score
0-1 (15%)
Three or more goals
33%
Both clubs score
40%
Bristol City score at least once
60%
QPR score at least once
67%
Season sample
9 and 9 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Bristol City win–
Draw–
QPR win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Bristol City goals, columns are QPR goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
013%15%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
112%13%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
26%6%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.58 goals) and away average (1.26 goals).

Sample. Bristol City 9 matches, QPR 9, the league 106, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 6 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.7%21.3%
2.562.0%38.0%
3.534.3%65.7%
4.510.2%89.8%

First-half goals · 106 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.578.7%21.3%
1.539.8%60.2%
2.516.7%83.3%
3.58.3%91.7%

Corners · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.570.1%29.9%
9.558.8%41.2%
10.549.5%50.5%

Yellow + red card events · 95 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.9%3.1%
1.592.8%7.2%
2.575.3%24.7%
3.548.5%51.5%
4.536.1%63.9%
5.518.6%81.4%
6.512.4%87.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Bristol City wins
4
Draws
4
QPR wins
Goals / meeting
1.90
19 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
70%
7 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 10 meetings
Bristol City clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
QPR clean sheets
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.60
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.80
10 with card data
  1. QPR v Bristol CitySat, 11 Apr 2026 · EFL Championship 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  2. Bristol City v QPRSat, 4 Oct 2025 · EFL Championship 2025-261–2HT 1–0
  3. QPR v Bristol CitySat, 12 Apr 2025 · EFL Championship 2024-251–1HT 1–1
  4. Bristol City v QPRSat, 14 Dec 2024 · EFL Championship 2024-251–1HT 0–0
  5. Bristol City v QPRSat, 17 Feb 2024 · EFL Championship 2023-240–1HT 0–1
  6. QPR v Bristol CitySat, 11 Nov 2023 · EFL Championship 2023-240–0HT 0–0
  7. QPR v Bristol CityMon, 8 May 2023 · EFL Championship 2022-230–2HT 0–1
  8. Bristol City v QPRSat, 1 Oct 2022 · EFL Championship 2022-231–2HT 0–2
  9. Bristol City v QPRThu, 30 Dec 2021 · EFL Championship 2021-221–2HT 1–1
  10. QPR v Bristol CitySat, 18 Sept 2021 · EFL Championship 2021-221–2HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Bristol City at homeWLLWLW
QPR awayLWWDDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Bristol City at home, QPR away
  • 53%
    Both teams scored
    League 67%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 62%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 9%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 2.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.85
    4 + 5 matches
  • 68%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 79%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 20%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 40%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 11.1
    Corners per match
    League 10.60
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 71%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 59%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 50%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 4.4
    Cards per match
    League 3.92
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 48%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 36%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Bristol City at home, QPR away
Bristol City (home)QPR (away)
11Position7
LWLWLast 5, oldest to newestWWDDD
4Played5
1.50Points per match1.80
50%Win %40%
0.75Scored / match1.40
1.00Conceded / match0.80
1.75Avg total goals2.20
25%Both scored80%
25%Clean sheets20%
50%Failed to score20%
1.06xG for1.29
1.46xG against1.20

Half by half

Bristol CityQPR
  • 0.501st half scored / match1.00
  • 0.251st half conceded / match0.40
  • 0.252nd half scored / match0.40
  • 0.752nd half conceded / match0.40
  • 50%Leading at half-time40%
  • 75%1st half over 0.560%
  • 0%1st half over 1.540%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.540%
  • 25%2nd half over 1.520%
  • 25%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Bristol City at home, QPR away, this season.

Goals

Bristol CityQPR
  • 0.75Scored / match1.40
  • 1.00Conceded / match0.80
  • 1.75Match total / match2.20
  • 50%Scored 1+80%
  • 25%Scored 2+40%
  • 75%Conceded 1+80%
  • 25%Conceded 2+0%
  • 50%Match over 1.580%
  • 25%Match over 2.540%
  • 0%Match over 3.520%

Shots and xG

Bristol CityQPR
  • 13.00Shots for12.75
  • 14.25Shots against12.50
  • 3.50On target for4.25
  • 2.25On target against3.25
  • 6%Shot conversion12%
  • 1.06xG for1.29
  • 1.46xG against1.20

Corners

Bristol CityQPR
  • 6.00Corners for5.25
  • 6.25Corners against4.75
  • 12.25Match total10.00
  • 75%Over 7.575%
  • 75%Over 8.550%
  • 75%Over 9.525%
  • 75%Over 10.525%
  • 75%Over 11.525%

Cards

Bristol CityQPR
  • 2.50Cards for2.25
  • 3.00Cards against1.00
  • 5.50Match total3.25
  • 100%Over 2.550%
  • 75%Over 3.550%
  • 75%Over 4.550%
  • 50%Over 5.50%
  • 11.75Fouls committed10.75

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
5Southampton8914
6Wolves8414
7QPR9314
8Birmingham9214
9Millwall9114
10West Brom9114
11Bristol City9-114
12Charlton9-313
13Blackburn9112
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL Championship matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.