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Bristol Rvs v Fleetwood Town, EFL League Two, Sat, 30 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 28. Sat, 30 Jan 2027

Bristol RvsHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
Fleetwood TownAway
LLWLLLeague form, oldest to newestDLLLD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Memorial Stadium. Photo: Chris clements at English Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Bristol Rvs have 5 scored home results and Fleetwood Town 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Bristol Rvs at home: 2.40 points per match (5 measured matches); Fleetwood Town away: 1.00 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Bristol Rvs scored 2.00 per home match (5 measured matches); Fleetwood Town scored 1.00 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.24 per club appearance across 228 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 10 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Bristol Rvs: 2 wins; Fleetwood Town: 3 wins; draws: 5.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Bristol Rvs at home and Fleetwood Town away.

Bristol Rvs at home

xG 2.67
  • Shots per match19.8
  • On target per match6.8
  • Goals per match2.0

Fleetwood Town away

xG 0.96
  • Shots per match13.2
  • On target per match3.8
  • Goals per match1.0

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 114 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Bristol Rvs
1.60
Expected goals, Fleetwood Town
1.09
Most likely score
1-1 (12%)
Three or more goals
50%
Both clubs score
53%
Bristol Rvs score at least once
80%
Fleetwood Town score at least once
67%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Bristol Rvs win–
Draw–
Fleetwood Town win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Bristol Rvs goals, columns are Fleetwood Town goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
07%7%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
111%12%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
29%9%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
35%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.49 goals) and away average (0.99 goals).

Sample. Bristol Rvs 10 matches, Fleetwood Town 10, the league 114, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.4%27.6%
2.543.1%56.9%
3.526.7%73.3%
4.510.3%89.7%

First-half goals · 114 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.531.0%69.0%
2.57.8%92.2%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.565.4%34.6%
9.561.5%38.5%
10.547.1%52.9%

Yellow + red card events · 102 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.1%1.9%
1.589.4%10.6%
2.573.1%26.9%
3.556.7%43.3%
4.544.2%55.8%
5.526.0%74.0%
6.512.5%87.5%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

2
Bristol Rvs wins
5
Draws
3
Fleetwood Town wins
Goals / meeting
1.80
18 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Bristol Rvs clean sheets
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Fleetwood Town clean sheets
50%
5 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.50
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
5.00
10 with card data
  1. Bristol Rvs v Fleetwood TownFri, 3 Apr 2026 · EFL League Two 2025-261–0HT 0–0
  2. Fleetwood Town v Bristol RvsSat, 9 Aug 2025 · EFL League Two 2025-262–1HT 2–0
  3. Fleetwood Town v Bristol RvsTue, 12 Mar 2024 · EFL League One 2023-240–0HT 0–0
  4. Bristol Rvs v Fleetwood TownTue, 6 Feb 2024 · EFL League One 2023-240–2HT 0–1
  5. Fleetwood Town v Bristol RvsMon, 10 Apr 2023 · EFL League One 2022-231–2HT 1–0
  6. Bristol Rvs v Fleetwood TownSat, 12 Nov 2022 · EFL League One 2022-232–2HT 0–1
  7. Fleetwood Town v Bristol RvsSat, 6 Feb 2021 · EFL League One 2020-210–0HT 0–0
  8. Bristol Rvs v Fleetwood TownSat, 14 Nov 2020 · EFL League One 2020-211–4HT 0–2
  9. Bristol Rvs v Fleetwood TownSat, 25 Jan 2020 · EFL League One 2019-200–0HT 0–0
  10. Fleetwood Town v Bristol RvsSun, 29 Dec 2019 · EFL League One 2019-200–0HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Bristol Rvs at homeWDWWWL
Fleetwood Town awayWDDLLL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Bristol Rvs at home, Fleetwood Town away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 53%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 43%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 40%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 10%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.8
    Avg total goals
    League 2.48
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 31%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10.5
    Corners per match
    League 10.11
    4 + 5 matches
  • 78%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 66%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 62%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 47%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 3.8
    Cards per match
    League 4.09
    4 + 5 matches
  • 65%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 57%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 44%
    4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Bristol Rvs at home, Fleetwood Town away
Bristol Rvs (home)Fleetwood Town (away)
9Position16
WWWWLLast 5, oldest to newestWDDLL
5Played5
2.40Points per match1.00
80%Win %20%
2.00Scored / match1.00
1.20Conceded / match1.40
3.20Avg total goals2.40
40%Both scored60%
60%Clean sheets20%
0%Failed to score20%
2.67xG for0.96
0.70xG against2.10

Half by half

Bristol RvsFleetwood Town
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.60
  • 0.201st half conceded / match0.60
  • 1.202nd half scored / match0.40
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.80
  • 60%Leading at half-time20%
  • 80%1st half over 0.580%
  • 20%1st half over 1.540%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 40%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Bristol Rvs at home, Fleetwood Town away, this season.

Goals

Bristol RvsFleetwood Town
  • 2.00Scored / match1.00
  • 1.20Conceded / match1.40
  • 3.20Match total / match2.40
  • 100%Scored 1+80%
  • 40%Scored 2+20%
  • 40%Conceded 1+80%
  • 40%Conceded 2+40%
  • 60%Match over 1.560%
  • 40%Match over 2.540%
  • 40%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

Bristol RvsFleetwood Town
  • 19.75Shots for13.20
  • 9.00Shots against14.60
  • 6.75On target for3.80
  • 2.75On target against3.80
  • 11%Shot conversion8%
  • 2.67xG for0.96
  • 0.70xG against2.10

Corners

Bristol RvsFleetwood Town
  • 7.50Corners for3.60
  • 2.50Corners against7.40
  • 10.00Match total11.00
  • 75%Over 7.580%
  • 75%Over 8.580%
  • 50%Over 9.580%
  • 50%Over 10.580%
  • 50%Over 11.560%

Cards

Bristol RvsFleetwood Town
  • 1.75Cards for3.00
  • 1.50Cards against1.40
  • 3.25Match total4.40
  • 75%Over 2.580%
  • 50%Over 3.580%
  • 0%Over 4.560%
  • 0%Over 5.520%
  • 11.25Fouls committed13.20

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
7Chesterfield10315
8Cheltenham10015
9Bristol Rvs10-215
10Rochdale10-114
11Grimsby10213
14Exeter10012
15Accrington10-111
16Fleetwood Town10-111
17Swindon10-511
18Shrewsbury10-611
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for EFL League Two matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.