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Burgos v Castellon, La Liga 2, Sun, 1 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 12. Sun, 1 Nov 2026

BurgosHome
vKick-off 17:30 UTC
CastellonAway
DWWWLLeague form, oldest to newestWWWWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Estadio El Plantío. Photo: Asturkian, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Burgos have 4 scored home results and Castellon 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Burgos at home: 2.50 points per match (4 measured matches); Castellon away: 3.00 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Burgos scored 2.25 per home match (4 measured matches); Castellon scored 1.75 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.32 per club appearance across 182 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 8 pooled club appearances (62.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 4. Burgos: 0 wins; Castellon: 3 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Burgos at home and Castellon away.

Burgos at home

xG 1.32
  • Shots per match9.5
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match2.3

Castellon away

xG 1.80
  • Shots per match16.0
  • On target per match6.3
  • Goals per match1.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 91 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Burgos
0.48
Expected goals, Castellon
1.40
Most likely score
0-1 (21%)
Three or more goals
29%
Both clubs score
29%
Burgos score at least once
38%
Castellon score at least once
75%
Season sample
8 and 8 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Burgos win–
Draw–
Castellon win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Burgos goals, columns are Castellon goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
015%21%15%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%
17%10%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
22%2%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
3under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.48 goals) and away average (1.16 goals).

Sample. Burgos 8 matches, Castellon 8, the league 91, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 91 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.572.0%28.0%
2.549.5%50.5%
3.532.3%67.7%
4.517.2%82.8%

First-half goals · 91 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.569.9%30.1%
1.533.3%66.7%
2.516.1%83.9%
3.54.3%95.7%

Corners · 88 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.9%51.1%
9.537.8%62.2%
10.525.6%74.4%

Yellow + red card events · 88 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.598.9%1.1%
1.595.6%4.4%
2.586.7%13.3%
3.581.1%18.9%
4.560.0%40.0%
5.542.2%57.8%
6.530.0%70.0%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

4 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Burgos wins
1
Draws
3
Castellon wins
Goals / meeting
2.25
9 goals in 4 meetings
Both scored
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Over 1.5
75%
3 of 4 meetings
Over 2.5
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Over 3.5
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Burgos clean sheets
25%
1 of 4 meetings
Castellon clean sheets
50%
2 of 4 meetings
Corners / meeting
11.00
4 with corner data
Cards / meeting
5.00
4 with card data
  1. Castellon v BurgosSat, 18 Apr 2026 · La Liga 2 2025-263–1HT 1–1
  2. Burgos v CastellonMon, 10 Nov 2025 · La Liga 2 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  3. Castellon v BurgosSat, 1 Mar 2025 · La Liga 2 2024-252–1HT 1–1
  4. Burgos v CastellonSun, 1 Sept 2024 · La Liga 2 2024-250–2HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Burgos at homeWDWWWL
Castellon awayDWWWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Burgos at home, Castellon away
  • 63%
    Both teams scored
    League 51%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 90%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 73%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 32%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 2.9
    Avg total goals
    League 2.65
    4 + 4 matches
  • 100%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 70%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 33%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 9.1
    Corners per match
    League 8.83
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 49%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 38%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 38%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 25%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 25%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 5.4
    Cards per match
    League 5.30
    4 + 4 matches
  • 88%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 82%
    4 + 4 matches
  • 63%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 60%
    4 + 4 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Burgos at home, Castellon away
Burgos (home)Castellon (away)
7Position2
WDWWLast 5, oldest to newestWWWW
4Played4
2.50Points per match3.00
75%Win %100%
2.25Scored / match1.75
1.25Conceded / match0.50
3.50Avg total goals2.25
75%Both scored50%
25%Clean sheets50%
0%Failed to score0%
1.32xG for1.80
1.34xG against0.92

Half by half

BurgosCastellon
  • 1.251st half scored / match0.75
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.25
  • 1.002nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.252nd half conceded / match0.25
  • 25%Leading at half-time75%
  • 100%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 75%1st half over 1.50%
  • 75%2nd half over 0.575%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 75%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Burgos at home, Castellon away, this season.

Goals

BurgosCastellon
  • 2.25Scored / match1.75
  • 1.25Conceded / match0.50
  • 3.50Match total / match2.25
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 75%Scored 2+75%
  • 75%Conceded 1+50%
  • 50%Conceded 2+0%
  • 75%Match over 1.575%
  • 75%Match over 2.550%
  • 75%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

BurgosCastellon
  • 9.50Shots for16.00
  • 14.50Shots against9.75
  • 3.25On target for6.25
  • 5.00On target against3.00
  • 24%Shot conversion11%
  • 1.32xG for1.80
  • 1.34xG against0.92

Corners

BurgosCastellon
  • 2.50Corners for6.00
  • 5.75Corners against4.00
  • 8.25Match total10.00
  • 75%Over 7.550%
  • 25%Over 8.550%
  • 25%Over 9.550%
  • 0%Over 10.550%
  • 0%Over 11.550%

Cards

BurgosCastellon
  • 2.00Cards for2.75
  • 2.25Cards against3.75
  • 4.25Match total6.50
  • 100%Over 2.5100%
  • 75%Over 3.5100%
  • 50%Over 4.575%
  • 0%Over 5.575%
  • 15.75Fouls committed13.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Eibar81121
2Castellon81220
3Almeria8818
4Sabadell9316
5Girona8614
6Mallorca8514
7Burgos8314
8Sp Gijon8013
9Granada8011
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for La Liga 2 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.