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Cagliari v Como, Serie A, Sun, 17 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 20. Sun, 17 Jan 2027

CagliariHome
vKick-off 13:00 UTC
ComoAway
WLWWWLeague form, oldest to newestDWWWL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Unipol Domus. Photo: Sandrino 14, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Cagliari have 2 scored home results and Como 4 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Cagliari at home: 1.50 points per match (2 measured matches); Como away: 1.75 points per match (4 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Cagliari scored 0.50 per home match (2 measured matches); Como scored 1.75 away (4). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.45 per club appearance across 106 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 3 of 6 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 6. Cagliari: 1 wins; Como: 2 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Cagliari at home and Como away.

Cagliari at home

xG 0.91
  • Shots per match15.0
  • On target per match4.5
  • Goals per match0.5

Como away

xG 1.61
  • Shots per match22.0
  • On target per match7.3
  • Goals per match1.8

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 53 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Cagliari
0.88
Expected goals, Como
0.46
Most likely score
0-0 (26%)
Three or more goals
15%
Both clubs score
22%
Cagliari score at least once
59%
Como score at least once
37%
Season sample
5 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Cagliari win–
Draw–
Como win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Cagliari goals, columns are Como goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
026%12%3%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
123%11%2%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
210%5%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
33%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.55 goals) and away average (1.36 goals).

Sample. Cagliari 5 matches, Como 5, the league 53, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.581.8%18.2%
2.556.4%43.6%
3.527.3%72.7%
4.518.2%81.8%

First-half goals · 53 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.5%34.5%
1.534.5%65.5%
2.516.4%83.6%
3.59.1%90.9%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.555.8%44.2%
9.542.3%57.7%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.592.3%7.7%
1.578.8%21.2%
2.567.3%32.7%
3.546.2%53.8%
4.525.0%75.0%
5.517.3%82.7%
6.53.8%96.2%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

6 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Cagliari wins
3
Draws
2
Como wins
Goals / meeting
2.17
13 goals in 6 meetings
Both scored
67%
4 of 6 meetings
Over 1.5
83%
5 of 6 meetings
Over 2.5
33%
2 of 6 meetings
Over 3.5
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Cagliari clean sheets
33%
2 of 6 meetings
Como clean sheets
17%
1 of 6 meetings
Corners / meeting
8.67
6 with corner data
Cards / meeting
3.33
6 with card data
  1. Cagliari v ComoSat, 7 Mar 2026 · Serie A 2025-261–2HT 0–1
  2. Como v CagliariSat, 8 Nov 2025 · Serie A 2025-260–0HT 0–0
  3. Como v CagliariSat, 10 May 2025 · Serie A 2024-253–1HT 2–1
  4. Cagliari v ComoMon, 26 Aug 2024 · Serie A 2024-251–1HT 1–0
  5. Cagliari v ComoSat, 14 Jan 2023 · Serie B 2022-232–0HT 1–0
  6. Como v CagliariSat, 13 Aug 2022 · Serie B 2022-231–1HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Cagliari at homeLWWLLW
Como awayWDWWLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Cagliari at home, Como away
  • 38%
    Both teams scored
    League 57%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 100%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 83%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 57%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 13%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 17%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 2.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.91
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 12.0
    Corners per match
    League 9.50
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 56%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 42%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 3.3
    Cards per match
    League 3.32
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 38%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 46%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample
  • 13%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 24%
    2 + 4 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Cagliari at home, Como away
Cagliari (home)Como (away)
4Position8
LWLast 5, oldest to newestDWWL
2Played4
1.50Points per match1.75
50%Win %50%
0.50Scored / match1.75
0.50Conceded / match1.25
1.00Avg total goals3.00
0%Both scored75%
50%Clean sheets0%
50%Failed to score25%
0.91xG for1.61
2.16xG against1.62

Half by half

CagliariComo
  • 0.501st half scored / match1.25
  • 0.501st half conceded / match1.25
  • 0.002nd half scored / match0.50
  • 0.002nd half conceded / match0.00
  • 50%Leading at half-time50%
  • 100%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 0%1st half over 1.575%
  • 0%2nd half over 0.550%
  • 0%2nd half over 1.50%
  • 0%Scored in both halves25%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Cagliari at home, Como away, this season.

Goals

CagliariComo
  • 0.50Scored / match1.75
  • 0.50Conceded / match1.25
  • 1.00Match total / match3.00
  • 50%Scored 1+75%
  • 0%Scored 2+50%
  • 50%Conceded 1+100%
  • 0%Conceded 2+25%
  • 0%Match over 1.5100%
  • 0%Match over 2.550%
  • 0%Match over 3.525%

Shots and xG

CagliariComo
  • 15.00Shots for22.00
  • 20.50Shots against15.75
  • 4.50On target for7.25
  • 5.00On target against3.25
  • 3%Shot conversion8%
  • 0.91xG for1.61
  • 2.16xG against1.62

Corners

CagliariComo
  • 7.50Corners for7.25
  • 5.50Corners against3.75
  • 13.00Match total11.00
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 100%Over 8.5100%
  • 100%Over 9.550%
  • 100%Over 10.550%
  • 100%Over 11.525%

Cards

CagliariComo
  • 1.50Cards for0.75
  • 2.00Cards against2.25
  • 3.50Match total3.00
  • 100%Over 2.575%
  • 50%Over 3.525%
  • 0%Over 4.525%
  • 0%Over 5.50%
  • 7.50Fouls committed7.75

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
2Roma51113
3Lazio5513
4Cagliari5312
5Milan5611
6Napoli6410
7Juventus5410
8Como5310
9Frosinone6210
10Sassuolo507
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie A matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.