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Cambrian United v Trefelin FC, Cymru Premier, Fri, 27 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 18. Fri, 27 Nov 2026

Cambrian UnitedHome
vKick-off 19:45 UTC
Trefelin FCAway
WLWLLLeague form, oldest to newestLDLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Cambrian United have 6 scored home results and Trefelin FC 7 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Cambrian United at home: 1.83 points per match (6 measured matches); Trefelin FC away: 0.71 points per match (7 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Cambrian United scored 1.67 per home match (6 measured matches); Trefelin FC scored 0.86 away (7). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.64 per club appearance across 208 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 8 of 13 pooled club appearances (61.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Cambrian United: 1 wins; Trefelin FC: 0 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 104 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Cambrian United
2.53
Expected goals, Trefelin FC
0.87
Most likely score
2-0 (11%)
Three or more goals
66%
Both clubs score
54%
Cambrian United score at least once
92%
Trefelin FC score at least once
58%
Season sample
13 and 13 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Cambrian United win–
Draw–
Trefelin FC win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Cambrian United goals, columns are Trefelin FC goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
03%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
18%7%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
211%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
39%8%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
46%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
53%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
61%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.78 goals) and away average (1.51 goals).

Sample. Cambrian United 13 matches, Trefelin FC 13, the league 104, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 104 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.579.2%20.8%
2.560.4%39.6%
3.538.7%61.3%
4.525.5%74.5%

First-half goals · 104 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.574.5%25.5%
1.539.6%60.4%
2.522.6%77.4%
3.510.4%89.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

1
Cambrian United wins
0
Draws
0
Trefelin FC wins
Goals / meeting
4.00
4 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Cambrian United clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Trefelin FC clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Trefelin FC v Cambrian UnitedTue, 15 Sept 2026 · Cymru Premier 2026-270–4HT 0–1

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Cambrian United at homeDWDWWL
Trefelin FC awayLLDDLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Cambrian United at home, Trefelin FC away
  • 62%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 99%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 83%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 80%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 54%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 61%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 31%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 38%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 16%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 25%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 3.1
    Avg total goals
    League 3.29
    6 + 7 matches
  • 70%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 75%
    6 + 7 matches
  • 38%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 39%
    6 + 7 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Cambrian United at home, Trefelin FC away
Cambrian United (home)Trefelin FC (away)
9Position15
WDWWLLast 5, oldest to newestLDDLW
6Played7
1.83Points per match0.71
50%Win %14%
1.67Scored / match0.86
1.33Conceded / match2.29
3.00Avg total goals3.14
67%Both scored57%
17%Clean sheets0%
17%Failed to score43%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Cambrian UnitedTrefelin FC
  • 0.831st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.501st half conceded / match1.00
  • 0.832nd half scored / match0.86
  • 0.832nd half conceded / match1.29
  • 33%Leading at half-time0%
  • 83%1st half over 0.557%
  • 33%1st half over 1.543%
  • 83%2nd half over 0.586%
  • 50%2nd half over 1.557%
  • 50%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Cambrian United at home, Trefelin FC away, this season.

Goals

Cambrian UnitedTrefelin FC
  • 1.67Scored / match0.86
  • 1.33Conceded / match2.29
  • 3.00Match total / match3.14
  • 83%Scored 1+57%
  • 50%Scored 2+14%
  • 83%Conceded 1+100%
  • 33%Conceded 2+57%
  • 67%Match over 1.5100%
  • 50%Match over 2.557%
  • 33%Match over 3.529%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Cymru Premier matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.