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Carrick Rangers v Glentoran, NIFL Premiership, Sat, 7 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 15. Sat, 7 Nov 2026

Carrick RangersHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
GlentoranAway
DLLWWLeague form, oldest to newestLWWWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Carrick Rangers have 5 scored home results and Glentoran 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Carrick Rangers at home: 1.20 points per match (5 measured matches); Glentoran away: 1.40 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Carrick Rangers scored 1.60 per home match (5 measured matches); Glentoran scored 1.20 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.35 per club appearance across 124 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 5 of 10 pooled club appearances (50.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Carrick Rangers: 0 wins; Glentoran: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 62 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Carrick Rangers
1.16
Expected goals, Glentoran
1.56
Most likely score
1-1 (12%)
Three or more goals
51%
Both clubs score
54%
Carrick Rangers score at least once
69%
Glentoran score at least once
79%
Season sample
11 and 11 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Carrick Rangers win–
Draw–
Glentoran win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Carrick Rangers goals, columns are Glentoran goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
07%10%8%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
18%12%9%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
24%7%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.35 goals) and away average (1.35 goals).

Sample. Carrick Rangers 11 matches, Glentoran 11, the league 62, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 17 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.578.1%21.9%
2.551.6%48.4%
3.528.1%71.9%
4.512.5%87.5%

First-half goals · 62 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.568.8%31.3%
1.534.4%65.6%
2.514.1%85.9%
3.54.7%95.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Carrick Rangers wins
0
Draws
1
Glentoran wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
2 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Carrick Rangers clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Glentoran clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Glentoran v Carrick RangersSat, 26 Sept 2026 · NIFL Premiership 2026-272–0HT 2–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Carrick Rangers at homeWLLLW
Glentoran awayLLWLWD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Carrick Rangers at home, Glentoran away
  • 50%
    Both teams scored
    League 47%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 79%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 52%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 27%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 10%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 11%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 2.9
    Avg total goals
    League 2.71
    5 + 5 matches
  • 50%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 69%
    5 + 5 matches
  • 30%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    5 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Carrick Rangers at home, Glentoran away
Carrick Rangers (home)Glentoran (away)
5Position4
WLLLWLast 5, oldest to newestLWLWD
5Played5
1.20Points per match1.40
40%Win %40%
1.60Scored / match1.20
2.00Conceded / match1.00
3.60Avg total goals2.20
40%Both scored60%
40%Clean sheets40%
20%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Carrick RangersGlentoran
  • 0.801st half scored / match0.20
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.40
  • 0.802nd half scored / match1.00
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 20%Leading at half-time0%
  • 60%1st half over 0.540%
  • 40%1st half over 1.520%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 60%2nd half over 1.560%
  • 20%Scored in both halves20%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Carrick Rangers at home, Glentoran away, this season.

Goals

Carrick RangersGlentoran
  • 1.60Scored / match1.20
  • 2.00Conceded / match1.00
  • 3.60Match total / match2.20
  • 80%Scored 1+80%
  • 40%Scored 2+40%
  • 60%Conceded 1+60%
  • 60%Conceded 2+40%
  • 80%Match over 1.580%
  • 60%Match over 2.560%
  • 60%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
2Linfield10825
3Larne FC71219
4Glentoran11517
5Carrick Rangers11216
6Crusaders FC11-615
7Dungannon Swifts10-313
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for NIFL Premiership matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.