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Carshalton Athletic v Lewes, Isthmian Football League, Premier Division, Sat, 6 Feb 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 30. Sat, 6 Feb 2027

Carshalton AthleticHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
LewesAway
LWWLLLeague form, oldest to newestLWLWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Carshalton Athletic have 6 scored home results and Lewes 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Carshalton Athletic at home: 1.50 points per match (6 measured matches); Lewes away: 1.67 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Carshalton Athletic scored 1.00 per home match (6 measured matches); Lewes scored 1.50 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.67 per club appearance across 226 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 12 pooled club appearances (33.3%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Carshalton Athletic: 0 wins; Lewes: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 113 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Carshalton Athletic
1.10
Expected goals, Lewes
1.35
Most likely score
1-1 (13%)
Three or more goals
44%
Both clubs score
49%
Carshalton Athletic score at least once
67%
Lewes score at least once
74%
Season sample
12 and 11 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Carshalton Athletic win–
Draw–
Lewes win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Carshalton Athletic goals, columns are Lewes goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
09%12%8%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
19%13%9%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
25%7%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
32%3%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.88 goals) and away average (1.47 goals).

Sample. Carshalton Athletic 12 matches, Lewes 11, the league 113, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 23 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 113 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.585.2%14.8%
2.568.7%31.3%
3.546.1%53.9%
4.528.7%71.3%

First-half goals · 113 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.580.0%20.0%
1.544.3%55.7%
2.523.5%76.5%
3.58.7%91.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Carshalton Athletic wins
0
Draws
1
Lewes wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
3 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Carshalton Athletic clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Lewes clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. Lewes v Carshalton AthleticTue, 15 Sept 2026 · Isthmian Football League, Premier Division 2026-273–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Carshalton Athletic at homeWWWLLL
Lewes awayDWWLLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
  • 39%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 95%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 82%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 86%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 61%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 69%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 35%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 46%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 28%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 2.9
    Avg total goals
    League 3.35
    12 + 11 matches
  • 73%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 81%
    12 + 11 matches
  • 39%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 44%
    12 + 11 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Both clubs, all matches this season
Carshalton AthleticLewes
5Position4
LWWLLLast 5, oldest to newestLWLWW
12Played11
1.75Points per match2.00
58%Win %64%
1.50Scored / match1.55
1.67Conceded / match1.09
3.17Avg total goals2.64
42%Both scored36%
25%Clean sheets55%
33%Failed to score18%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Carshalton AthleticLewes
  • 0.671st half scored / match0.45
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.55
  • 0.832nd half scored / match1.09
  • 0.672nd half conceded / match0.55
  • 33%Leading at half-time27%
  • 92%1st half over 0.555%
  • 50%1st half over 1.527%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.582%
  • 42%2nd half over 1.546%
  • 58%Scored in both halves27%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Both clubs, every match this season.

Goals

Carshalton AthleticLewes
  • 1.50Scored / match1.55
  • 1.67Conceded / match1.09
  • 3.17Match total / match2.64
  • 67%Scored 1+82%
  • 67%Scored 2+55%
  • 75%Conceded 1+46%
  • 50%Conceded 2+27%
  • 92%Match over 1.573%
  • 67%Match over 2.555%
  • 33%Match over 3.536%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Isthmian Football League, Premier Division matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.