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Cesena v Ascoli, Serie B, Tue, 24 Nov 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 13. Tue, 24 Nov 2026

CesenaHome
vKick-off 19:00 UTC
AscoliAway
WDDDLLeague form, oldest to newestDWLWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stadio Dino Manuzzi. Photo: Matmurat01, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Cesena have 3 scored home results and Ascoli 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Cesena at home: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches); Ascoli away: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Cesena scored 1.33 per home match (3 measured matches); Ascoli scored 0.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.32 per club appearance across 114 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 6 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Cesena: 0 wins; Ascoli: 2 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Cesena at home and Ascoli away.

Cesena at home

xG 1.39
  • Shots per match11.7
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match1.3

Ascoli away

xG 1.52
  • Shots per match15.0
  • On target per match4.0
  • Goals per match0.7

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 57 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Cesena
0.63
Expected goals, Ascoli
1.10
Most likely score
0-1 (19%)
Three or more goals
25%
Both clubs score
31%
Cesena score at least once
47%
Ascoli score at least once
67%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Cesena win–
Draw–
Ascoli win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Cesena goals, columns are Ascoli goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
018%19%11%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
111%12%7%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
24%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.40 goals) and away average (1.23 goals).

Sample. Cesena 6 matches, Ascoli 6, the league 57, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 26 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.6%25.4%
2.552.5%47.5%
3.527.1%72.9%
4.513.6%86.4%

First-half goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.561.0%39.0%
1.523.7%76.3%
2.510.2%89.8%
3.53.4%96.6%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.557.7%42.3%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.592.3%7.7%
2.580.8%19.2%
3.565.4%34.6%
4.542.3%57.7%
5.519.2%80.8%
6.515.4%84.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Cesena wins
0
Draws
2
Ascoli wins
Goals / meeting
2.50
5 goals in 2 meetings · small sample
Both scored
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 2.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Cesena clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Ascoli clean sheets
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Corners / meeting
10.00
2 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
5.50
2 with card data · small sample
  1. Ascoli v CesenaSat, 24 Feb 2018 · Serie B 2017-182–1HT 1–1
  2. Cesena v AscoliSun, 24 Sept 2017 · Serie B 2017-180–2HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Cesena at homeDDLDDD
Ascoli awayLDLWLD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Cesena at home, Ascoli away
  • 67%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 83%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 2.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.63
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 61%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 23%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 10.6
    Corners per match
    League 9.78
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 58%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 4.6
    Cards per match
    League 4.20
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 83%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 66%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 83%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 42%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Cesena at home, Ascoli away
Cesena (home)Ascoli (away)
10Position4
DDDLast 5, oldest to newestWLD
3Played3
1.00Points per match1.33
0%Win %33%
1.33Scored / match0.67
1.33Conceded / match0.67
2.67Avg total goals1.33
100%Both scored33%
0%Clean sheets33%
0%Failed to score67%
1.39xG for1.52
1.02xG against2.02

Half by half

CesenaAscoli
  • 0.671st half scored / match0.00
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.33
  • 0.672nd half scored / match0.67
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 67%Leading at half-time0%
  • 100%1st half over 0.533%
  • 0%1st half over 1.50%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 33%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Cesena at home, Ascoli away, this season.

Goals

CesenaAscoli
  • 1.33Scored / match0.67
  • 1.33Conceded / match0.67
  • 2.67Match total / match1.33
  • 100%Scored 1+33%
  • 33%Scored 2+33%
  • 100%Conceded 1+67%
  • 33%Conceded 2+0%
  • 100%Match over 1.533%
  • 33%Match over 2.533%
  • 33%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

CesenaAscoli
  • 11.67Shots for15.00
  • 16.00Shots against17.50
  • 3.33On target for4.00
  • 6.33On target against5.50
  • 11%Shot conversion7%
  • 1.39xG for1.52
  • 1.02xG against2.02

Corners

CesenaAscoli
  • 5.00Corners for6.00
  • 6.67Corners against3.50
  • 11.67Match total9.50
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 100%Over 8.5100%
  • 67%Over 9.550%
  • 67%Over 10.50%
  • 67%Over 11.50%

Cards

CesenaAscoli
  • 2.67Cards for2.50
  • 1.00Cards against3.00
  • 3.67Match total5.50
  • 67%Over 2.5100%
  • 67%Over 3.5100%
  • 67%Over 4.5100%
  • 0%Over 5.550%
  • 12.67Fouls committed14.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
2Sudtirol6612
3Mantova5511
4Ascoli6311
5Avellino6410
6Modena5410
8Benevento6310
9Verona537
10Cesena6-17
11Padova5-17
12Arezzo6-77
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie B matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.