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Cesena v Pisa, Serie B, Sun, 27 Dec 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 19. Sun, 27 Dec 2026

CesenaHome
vKick-off 16:15 UTC
PisaAway
WDDDLLeague form, oldest to newestWWLDW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stadio Dino Manuzzi. Photo: Matmurat01, CC BY-SA 4.0, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Cesena have 3 scored home results and Pisa 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Cesena at home: 1.00 points per match (3 measured matches); Pisa away: 2.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Cesena scored 1.33 per home match (3 measured matches); Pisa scored 2.67 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.32 per club appearance across 114 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 6 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 2. Cesena: 0 wins; Pisa: 1 wins; draws: 1.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Cesena at home and Pisa away.

Cesena at home

xG 1.39
  • Shots per match11.7
  • On target per match3.3
  • Goals per match1.3

Pisa away

xG 1.91
  • Shots per match13.0
  • On target per match6.0
  • Goals per match2.7

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 57 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Cesena
1.26
Expected goals, Pisa
1.73
Most likely score
1-1 (11%)
Three or more goals
58%
Both clubs score
59%
Cesena score at least once
72%
Pisa score at least once
82%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Cesena win–
Draw–
Pisa win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Cesena goals, columns are Pisa goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
05%9%8%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
16%11%9%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
24%7%6%3%1%1%under 1%under 1%
32%3%3%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.40 goals) and away average (1.23 goals).

Sample. Cesena 6 matches, Pisa 6, the league 57, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 26 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.6%25.4%
2.552.5%47.5%
3.527.1%72.9%
4.513.6%86.4%

First-half goals · 57 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.561.0%39.0%
1.523.7%76.3%
2.510.2%89.8%
3.53.4%96.6%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.557.7%42.3%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.534.6%65.4%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.592.3%7.7%
2.580.8%19.2%
3.565.4%34.6%
4.542.3%57.7%
5.519.2%80.8%
6.515.4%84.6%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

2 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Cesena wins
1
Draws
1
Pisa wins
Goals / meeting
3.00
6 goals in 2 meetings · small sample
Both scored
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
2 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 2.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Over 3.5
50%
1 of 2 meetings · small sample
Cesena clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Pisa clean sheets
0%
0 of 2 meetings · small sample
Corners / meeting
7.50
2 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
6.50
2 with card data · small sample
  1. Cesena v PisaSun, 16 Feb 2025 · Serie B 2024-251–1HT 0–1
  2. Pisa v CesenaSat, 5 Oct 2024 · Serie B 2024-253–1HT 2–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Cesena at homeDDLDDD
Pisa awayLLWLDW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Cesena at home, Pisa away
  • 67%
    Both teams scored
    League 61%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 53%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 0%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 12%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 3.0
    Avg total goals
    League 2.63
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 61%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 23%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 10.1
    Corners per match
    League 9.78
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 58%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 33%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 34%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 4.6
    Cards per match
    League 4.20
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 83%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 66%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 42%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Cesena at home, Pisa away
Cesena (home)Pisa (away)
10Position7
DDDLast 5, oldest to newestWDW
3Played3
1.00Points per match2.33
0%Win %67%
1.33Scored / match2.67
1.33Conceded / match0.67
2.67Avg total goals3.33
100%Both scored33%
0%Clean sheets67%
0%Failed to score0%
1.39xG for1.91
1.02xG against1.31

Half by half

CesenaPisa
  • 0.671st half scored / match1.00
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.33
  • 0.672nd half scored / match1.67
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.33
  • 67%Leading at half-time67%
  • 100%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 0%1st half over 1.533%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 33%2nd half over 1.5100%
  • 33%Scored in both halves100%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Cesena at home, Pisa away, this season.

Goals

CesenaPisa
  • 1.33Scored / match2.67
  • 1.33Conceded / match0.67
  • 2.67Match total / match3.33
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 33%Scored 2+100%
  • 100%Conceded 1+33%
  • 33%Conceded 2+33%
  • 100%Match over 1.5100%
  • 33%Match over 2.5100%
  • 33%Match over 3.533%

Shots and xG

CesenaPisa
  • 11.67Shots for13.00
  • 16.00Shots against14.50
  • 3.33On target for6.00
  • 6.33On target against3.00
  • 11%Shot conversion19%
  • 1.39xG for1.91
  • 1.02xG against1.31

Corners

CesenaPisa
  • 5.00Corners for4.00
  • 6.67Corners against4.50
  • 11.67Match total8.50
  • 100%Over 7.550%
  • 100%Over 8.550%
  • 67%Over 9.550%
  • 67%Over 10.50%
  • 67%Over 11.50%

Cards

CesenaPisa
  • 2.67Cards for2.50
  • 1.00Cards against3.00
  • 3.67Match total5.50
  • 67%Over 2.5100%
  • 67%Over 3.5100%
  • 67%Over 4.550%
  • 0%Over 5.550%
  • 12.67Fouls committed17.00

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
5Avellino6410
6Modena5410
7Pisa6310
8Benevento6310
9Verona537
10Cesena6-17
11Padova5-17
12Arezzo6-77
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Serie B matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.