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Chaves v Portimonense, Liga Portugal 2, Sat, 15 May 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 34. Sat, 15 May 2027

ChavesHome
vKick-off 11:00 UTC
PortimonenseAway
LDLWLLeague form, oldest to newestDLLLW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Chaves have 3 scored home results and Portimonense 3 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Chaves at home: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Portimonense away: 1.33 points per match (3 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Chaves scored 1.33 per home match (3 measured matches); Portimonense scored 1.00 away (3). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.19 per club appearance across 116 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 6 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 8. Chaves: 5 wins; Portimonense: 3 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 58 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Chaves
0.81
Expected goals, Portimonense
1.54
Most likely score
0-1 (15%)
Three or more goals
42%
Both clubs score
43%
Chaves score at least once
55%
Portimonense score at least once
79%
Season sample
6 and 6 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Chaves win–
Draw–
Portimonense win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Chaves goals, columns are Portimonense goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
010%15%11%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%
18%12%9%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
23%5%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
31%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
4under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.17 goals) and away average (1.21 goals).

Sample. Chaves 6 matches, Portimonense 6, the league 58, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 7 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 58 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.570.0%30.0%
2.546.7%53.3%
3.521.7%78.3%
4.56.7%93.3%

First-half goals · 58 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.573.3%26.7%
1.530.0%70.0%
2.55.0%95.0%
3.51.7%98.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

8 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

5
Chaves wins
0
Draws
3
Portimonense wins
Goals / meeting
2.25
18 goals in 8 meetings
Both scored
38%
3 of 8 meetings
Over 1.5
63%
5 of 8 meetings
Over 2.5
38%
3 of 8 meetings
Over 3.5
13%
1 of 8 meetings
Chaves clean sheets
50%
4 of 8 meetings
Portimonense clean sheets
13%
1 of 8 meetings
Corners / meeting
12.63
8 with corner data
Cards / meeting
6.25
8 with card data
  1. Chaves v PortimonenseSun, 7 Apr 2024 · Primeira Liga 2023-242–3HT 1–0
  2. Portimonense v ChavesSat, 11 Nov 2023 · Primeira Liga 2023-242–1HT 2–0
  3. Chaves v PortimonenseSat, 11 Mar 2023 · Primeira Liga 2022-232–0HT 1–0
  4. Portimonense v ChavesFri, 16 Sept 2022 · Primeira Liga 2022-231–0HT 1–0
  5. Portimonense v ChavesTue, 29 Jan 2019 · Primeira Liga 2018-190–1HT 0–1
  6. Chaves v PortimonenseSat, 18 Aug 2018 · Primeira Liga 2018-192–0HT 2–0
  7. Chaves v PortimonenseSun, 22 Apr 2018 · Primeira Liga 2017-182–1HT 0–0
  8. Portimonense v ChavesSun, 10 Dec 2017 · Primeira Liga 2017-180–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Chaves at homeDLLLDW
Portimonense awayLWDLWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Chaves at home, Portimonense away
  • 67%
    Both teams scored
    League 43%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 93%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 71%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 47%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 33%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 21%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 5%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 2.7
    Avg total goals
    League 2.38
    3 + 3 matches
  • 67%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 74%
    3 + 3 matches
  • 17%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 29%
    3 + 3 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Chaves at home, Portimonense away
Chaves (home)Portimonense (away)
17Position12
LDWLast 5, oldest to newestDLW
3Played3
1.33Points per match1.33
33%Win %33%
1.33Scored / match1.00
2.00Conceded / match1.00
3.33Avg total goals2.00
67%Both scored67%
33%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score33%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

ChavesPortimonense
  • 0.331st half scored / match0.33
  • 0.671st half conceded / match0.33
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.67
  • 1.332nd half conceded / match0.67
  • 33%Leading at half-time33%
  • 67%1st half over 0.567%
  • 33%1st half over 1.50%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.567%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.533%
  • 33%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Chaves at home, Portimonense away, this season.

Goals

ChavesPortimonense
  • 1.33Scored / match1.00
  • 2.00Conceded / match1.00
  • 3.33Match total / match2.00
  • 100%Scored 1+67%
  • 33%Scored 2+33%
  • 67%Conceded 1+100%
  • 67%Conceded 2+0%
  • 67%Match over 1.567%
  • 67%Match over 2.533%
  • 67%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
10AVS719
11Académica Coimbra6-29
12Portimonense6-27
13FC Porto B7-87
14Felgueiras6-16
15Torreense7-36
16Amarante FC7-45
17Chaves6-84
18Feirense6-71
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Liga Portugal 2 matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.