Skip to content
MatchDaySync

Chelsea v Man City, Premier League, Sat, 24 Apr 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Matchday 33. Sat, 24 Apr 2027

ChelseaHome
vKick-off 14:00 UTC
Man CityAway
WLDLWLeague form, oldest to newestWWWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stamford Bridge. Photo: Arne Müseler / arne-mueseler.com / Original source, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, cropped and resized.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Chelsea have 3 scored home results and Man City 2 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Chelsea at home: 2.33 points per match (3 measured matches); Man City away: 3.00 points per match (2 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Chelsea scored 3.67 per home match (3 measured matches); Man City scored 2.50 away (2). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.44 per club appearance across 112 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 4 of 5 pooled club appearances (80.0%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 10. Chelsea: 0 wins; Man City: 7 wins; draws: 3.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

How each side turns shots into goals

Stored whole-season rates per match, Chelsea at home and Man City away.

Chelsea at home

xG 1.92
  • Shots per match14.5
  • On target per match6.5
  • Goals per match3.7

Man City away

xG 1.66
  • Shots per match12.0
  • On target per match5.5
  • Goals per match2.5

Counts only. Shot positions are not stored, so no shot map is drawn.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 56 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Chelsea
1.90
Expected goals, Man City
3.55
Most likely score
1-3 (6%)
Three or more goals
91%
Both clubs score
83%
Chelsea score at least once
85%
Man City score at least once
97%
Season sample
6 and 5 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Chelsea win–
Draw–
Man City win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Chelsea goals, columns are Man City goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
0under 1%2%3%3%3%2%1%1%
11%3%5%6%6%4%2%1%
21%3%5%6%5%4%2%1%
31%2%3%4%3%2%1%1%
4under 1%1%2%2%2%1%1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.57 goals) and away average (1.30 goals).

Sample. Chelsea 6 matches, Man City 5, the league 56, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.574.1%25.9%
2.553.4%46.6%
3.534.5%65.5%
4.520.7%79.3%

First-half goals · 56 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.558.6%41.4%
1.537.9%62.1%
2.517.2%82.8%
3.56.9%93.1%

Corners · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
8.548.1%51.9%
9.544.2%55.8%
10.536.5%63.5%

Yellow + red card events · 50 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.596.2%3.8%
1.588.5%11.5%
2.575.0%25.0%
3.553.8%46.2%
4.538.5%61.5%
5.521.2%78.8%
6.57.7%92.3%

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

10 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Chelsea wins
3
Draws
7
Man City wins
Goals / meeting
2.50
25 goals in 10 meetings
Both scored
40%
4 of 10 meetings
Over 1.5
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Over 2.5
30%
3 of 10 meetings
Over 3.5
20%
2 of 10 meetings
Chelsea clean sheets
0%
0 of 10 meetings
Man City clean sheets
60%
6 of 10 meetings
Corners / meeting
9.70
10 with corner data
Cards / meeting
4.00
10 with card data
  1. Chelsea v Man CitySun, 12 Apr 2026 · Premier League 2025-260–3HT 0–0
  2. Man City v ChelseaSun, 4 Jan 2026 · Premier League 2025-261–1HT 1–0
  3. Man City v ChelseaSat, 25 Jan 2025 · Premier League 2024-253–1HT 1–1
  4. Chelsea v Man CitySun, 18 Aug 2024 · Premier League 2024-250–2HT 0–1
  5. Man City v ChelseaSat, 17 Feb 2024 · Premier League 2023-241–1HT 0–1
  6. Chelsea v Man CitySun, 12 Nov 2023 · Premier League 2023-244–4HT 2–2
  7. Man City v ChelseaSun, 21 May 2023 · Premier League 2022-231–0HT 1–0
  8. Chelsea v Man CityThu, 5 Jan 2023 · Premier League 2022-230–1HT 0–0
  9. Man City v ChelseaSat, 15 Jan 2022 · Premier League 2021-221–0HT 0–0
  10. Chelsea v Man CitySat, 25 Sept 2021 · Premier League 2021-220–1HT 0–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Chelsea at homeWWWWDW
Man City awayDDLWWW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Chelsea at home, Man City away
  • 75%
    Both teams scored
    League 54%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 91%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 75%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 54%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 34%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 58%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 20%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 4.3
    Avg total goals
    League 2.87
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 59%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 50%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 37%
    3 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 11.5
    Corners per match
    League 9.38
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 8.5
    League 48%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 9.5
    League 44%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Corners over 10.5
    League 36%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 4.3
    Cards per match
    League 3.88
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 75%
    Cards over 3.5
    League 54%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample
  • 25%
    Cards over 4.5
    League 38%
    2 + 2 matches, small sample

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Chelsea at home, Man City away
Chelsea (home)Man City (away)
5Position1
WDWLast 5, oldest to newestWW
3Played2
2.33Points per match3.00
67%Win %100%
3.67Scored / match2.50
2.00Conceded / match0.50
5.67Avg total goals3.00
100%Both scored50%
0%Clean sheets50%
0%Failed to score0%
1.92xG for1.66
1.39xG against0.83

Half by half

ChelseaMan City
  • 2.001st half scored / match0.50
  • 1.001st half conceded / match0.00
  • 1.672nd half scored / match2.00
  • 1.002nd half conceded / match0.50
  • 67%Leading at half-time50%
  • 100%1st half over 0.550%
  • 100%1st half over 1.50%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 67%2nd half over 1.550%
  • 100%Scored in both halves50%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Chelsea at home, Man City away, this season.

Goals

ChelseaMan City
  • 3.67Scored / match2.50
  • 2.00Conceded / match0.50
  • 5.67Match total / match3.00
  • 100%Scored 1+100%
  • 100%Scored 2+50%
  • 100%Conceded 1+50%
  • 67%Conceded 2+0%
  • 100%Match over 1.550%
  • 100%Match over 2.550%
  • 100%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

ChelseaMan City
  • 14.50Shots for12.00
  • 14.50Shots against12.50
  • 6.50On target for5.50
  • 5.50On target against2.00
  • 21%Shot conversion21%
  • 1.92xG for1.66
  • 1.39xG against0.83

Corners

ChelseaMan City
  • 7.00Corners for6.50
  • 5.50Corners against4.00
  • 12.50Match total10.50
  • 100%Over 7.5100%
  • 100%Over 8.550%
  • 100%Over 9.550%
  • 100%Over 10.550%
  • 50%Over 11.550%

Cards

ChelseaMan City
  • 1.00Cards for2.50
  • 4.00Cards against1.00
  • 5.00Match total3.50
  • 100%Over 2.5100%
  • 100%Over 3.550%
  • 50%Over 4.50%
  • 50%Over 5.50%
  • 6.50Fouls committed10.50

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
1Man City5815
2Arsenal6515
3Brighton61313
4Brentford6610
5Chelsea6210
6Leeds639
7Liverpool539
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Premier League matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.