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Cherno More Varna v FK Septemvri Sofia, Parva Liga, Sat, 24 Oct 2026: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 12. Sat, 24 Oct 2026

Cherno More VarnaHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
FK Septemvri SofiaAway
WLLDDLeague form, oldest to newestWDLLL

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Cherno More Varna have 4 scored home results and FK Septemvri Sofia 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Cherno More Varna at home: 1.00 points per match (4 measured matches); FK Septemvri Sofia away: 0.80 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Cherno More Varna scored 1.75 per home match (4 measured matches); FK Septemvri Sofia scored 0.80 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.31 per club appearance across 142 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 9 pooled club appearances (66.7%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 71 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Cherno More Varna
1.69
Expected goals, FK Septemvri Sofia
1.08
Most likely score
1-1 (11%)
Three or more goals
52%
Both clubs score
54%
Cherno More Varna score at least once
82%
FK Septemvri Sofia score at least once
66%
Season sample
10 and 10 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Cherno More Varna win–
Draw–
FK Septemvri Sofia win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Cherno More Varna goals, columns are FK Septemvri Sofia goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
06%7%4%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
111%11%6%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
29%10%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
35%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
42%2%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
51%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.46 goals) and away average (1.15 goals).

Sample. Cherno More Varna 10 matches, FK Septemvri Sofia 10, the league 71, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 71 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.575.3%24.7%
2.550.7%49.3%
3.526.0%74.0%
4.513.7%86.3%

First-half goals · 71 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.565.8%34.2%
1.534.2%65.8%
2.55.5%94.5%
3.51.4%98.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Cherno More Varna at homeLLWD
FK Septemvri Sofia awayLLWDL

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Cherno More Varna at home, FK Septemvri Sofia away
  • 68%
    Both teams scored
    League 56%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 96%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 90%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 76%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 51%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 38%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 25%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 13%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 13%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 3.2
    Avg total goals
    League 2.62
    4 + 5 matches
  • 68%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 66%
    4 + 5 matches
  • 23%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 34%
    4 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Cherno More Varna at home, FK Septemvri Sofia away
Cherno More Varna (home)FK Septemvri Sofia (away)
13Position12
LLWDLast 5, oldest to newestLLWDL
4Played5
1.00Points per match0.80
25%Win %20%
1.75Scored / match0.80
2.25Conceded / match1.60
4.00Avg total goals2.40
75%Both scored60%
0%Clean sheets20%
25%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Cherno More VarnaFK Septemvri Sofia
  • 0.751st half scored / match0.20
  • 0.251st half conceded / match0.60
  • 1.002nd half scored / match0.60
  • 2.002nd half conceded / match1.00
  • 50%Leading at half-time0%
  • 75%1st half over 0.560%
  • 25%1st half over 1.520%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.5100%
  • 100%2nd half over 1.560%
  • 25%Scored in both halves0%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Cherno More Varna at home, FK Septemvri Sofia away, this season.

Goals

Cherno More VarnaFK Septemvri Sofia
  • 1.75Scored / match0.80
  • 2.25Conceded / match1.60
  • 4.00Match total / match2.40
  • 75%Scored 1+80%
  • 75%Scored 2+0%
  • 100%Conceded 1+80%
  • 75%Conceded 2+60%
  • 100%Match over 1.580%
  • 100%Match over 2.560%
  • 75%Match over 3.50%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for Parva Liga matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.