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Chesham United v Dorking, National League South, Sat, 2 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 25. Sat, 2 Jan 2027

Chesham UnitedHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
DorkingAway
LLWLLLeague form, oldest to newestDDDWD

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Chesham United have 5 scored home results and Dorking 6 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Chesham United at home: 0.80 points per match (5 measured matches); Dorking away: 1.67 points per match (6 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Chesham United scored 1.00 per home match (5 measured matches); Dorking scored 2.17 away (6). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.41 per club appearance across 256 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 6 of 11 pooled club appearances (54.5%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. No earlier meetings between these teams are stored.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 128 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Chesham United
1.57
Expected goals, Dorking
3.30
Most likely score
1-3 (7%)
Three or more goals
86%
Both clubs score
76%
Chesham United score at least once
79%
Dorking score at least once
96%
Season sample
11 and 11 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Chesham United win–
Draw–
Dorking win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Chesham United goals, columns are Dorking goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
01%3%4%5%4%3%1%1%
11%4%7%7%6%4%2%1%
21%3%5%6%5%3%2%1%
31%2%3%3%2%2%1%under 1%
4under 1%1%1%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.38 goals) and away average (1.43 goals).

Sample. Chesham United 11 matches, Dorking 11, the league 128, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 128 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.576.9%23.1%
2.548.5%51.5%
3.530.8%69.2%
4.518.5%81.5%

First-half goals · 128 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.573.1%26.9%
1.539.2%60.8%
2.514.6%85.4%
3.55.4%94.6%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

No valid scored meetings are available in this bounded stored window.

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Chesham United at homeWDLLWL
Dorking awayWWDDDD

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Chesham United at home, Dorking away
  • 53%
    Both teams scored
    League 52%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 95%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 92%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 77%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 73%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 48%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 55%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 30%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 27%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 18%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 3.5
    Avg total goals
    League 2.81
    5 + 6 matches
  • 83%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 73%
    5 + 6 matches
  • 53%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 39%
    5 + 6 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Chesham United at home, Dorking away
Chesham United (home)Dorking (away)
19Position9
WDLLLLast 5, oldest to newestWWDDD
5Played6
0.80Points per match1.67
20%Win %33%
1.00Scored / match2.17
2.60Conceded / match1.17
3.60Avg total goals3.33
40%Both scored67%
20%Clean sheets33%
40%Failed to score17%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

Chesham UnitedDorking
  • 0.201st half scored / match1.17
  • 1.801st half conceded / match0.67
  • 0.802nd half scored / match1.00
  • 0.802nd half conceded / match0.50
  • 20%Leading at half-time33%
  • 100%1st half over 0.567%
  • 40%1st half over 1.567%
  • 80%2nd half over 0.583%
  • 40%2nd half over 1.567%
  • 20%Scored in both halves67%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Chesham United at home, Dorking away, this season.

Goals

Chesham UnitedDorking
  • 1.00Scored / match2.17
  • 2.60Conceded / match1.17
  • 3.60Match total / match3.33
  • 60%Scored 1+83%
  • 40%Scored 2+67%
  • 80%Conceded 1+67%
  • 80%Conceded 2+33%
  • 100%Match over 1.583%
  • 80%Match over 2.567%
  • 60%Match over 3.550%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
7Dover Athletic11118
8Tonbridge Angels11917
9Dorking11617
10Farnham Town11117
11Torquay11316
17Horsham FC10-211
18Farnborough10-911
19Chesham United11-810
20AFC Totton10-810
21Braintree Town11-910
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League South matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.