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Chorley v King’s Lynn, National League North, Sat, 16 Jan 2027: statistics and head to head

2026-27, Round 27. Sat, 16 Jan 2027

ChorleyHome
vKick-off 15:00 UTC
King’s LynnAway
LWLWWLeague form, oldest to newestWLWWW

Restored from the 11 October backup. Current updates are not connected.

Stored context before this match

Before this match, Chorley have 6 scored home results and King’s Lynn 5 scored away results stored in 2026-27. Statistical pre-kickoff PPG: Chorley at home: 2.17 points per match (6 measured matches); King’s Lynn away: 1.80 points per match (5 measured matches). Observed points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before official adjustments. Chorley scored 2.33 per home match (6 measured matches); King’s Lynn scored 2.20 away (5). The competition's pooled scoring average was 1.39 per club appearance across 266 measured appearances. Both sides scored in 7 of 11 pooled club appearances (63.6%). A shared fixture counts once for each club's record. Earlier stored meetings: 1. Chorley: 0 wins; King’s Lynn: 1 wins; draws: 0.

Only scored source results before the recorded kickoff enter this statistical brief; same-day records with unknown kickoff order are excluded.

A plain reading of the stored figures. No verified written preview is current for this match.

There will be no minute-by-minute timeline here: goal times, cards and substitutions are not stored in our records.

Prototype model, not yet validatedFrom 133 league matches, 2026-27

How the numbers lean

An estimate from this season's league scoring only. A historical reconstruction is available; there is no record of these estimates published before kickoff. Scoring probabilities use the same normalised zero-to-seven goal grid.

Expected goals, Chorley
1.89
Expected goals, King’s Lynn
1.86
Most likely score
1-1 (8%)
Three or more goals
72%
Both clubs score
72%
Chorley score at least once
85%
King’s Lynn score at least once
84%
Season sample
11 and 11 matches

Play it a thousand times

Each run draws a score from the two expected-goals figures. It shows how widely one estimate can land, and adds nothing the model does not already assume.

Chorley win–
Draw–
King’s Lynn win–

Nothing has run yet.

Chance of each score from zero to seven goals per club, normalised within this grid. Rows are Chorley goals, columns are King’s Lynn goals. The outlined cell is the most likely.
01234567
02%4%4%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
14%8%8%5%2%1%under 1%under 1%
24%8%7%4%2%1%under 1%under 1%
33%5%5%3%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
41%2%2%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
5under 1%1%1%1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
6under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%
7under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%under 1%

Method. Independent Poisson. Each club's goals scored and conceded per match this season are set against the league average, then scaled by the league's home average (1.63 goals) and away average (1.14 goals).

Sample. Chorley 11 matches, King’s Lynn 11, the league 133, all 2026-27, read before kick-off. One unusual result moves a small sample a long way.

Left out. Line-ups, injuries, rest days, shot quality and earlier seasons. The historical reconstruction is separate from a record published before kickoff. How the model works.

Goal, corner and card probabilities

Snapshot cutoff 2026-10-18T11:08:20.574Z · 5 full days old. Based on this league’s season results. Both clubs share this league-wide baseline.

Version preceding-paired-rate-beta11-1. Each probability is (preceding over-count + 1) / (measured pairs + 2). At least 40 complete match records are required. Filters include fixtures with measured values.

Full-time goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
1.575.6%24.4%
2.554.8%45.2%
3.525.9%74.1%
4.516.3%83.7%

First-half goals · 133 measured pairs

LineOverUnder
0.570.4%29.6%
1.532.6%67.4%
2.512.6%87.4%
3.53.7%96.3%

Corners · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Yellow + red card events · Unavailable: fewer than 40 complete records

Cards count stored yellow plus red events, not booking points. Half-time figures use measured half-time scores. This baseline uses recorded league results. Historical testing and coverage limits are documented in the methodology.

Head to head

Meetings before this match. Same-day meetings qualify only when both recorded kickoff times establish an earlier start.

1 valid scored meetings from a bounded window of up to 10 stored meetings, any competition. Too few to read much into. Clean sheets count each named club separately; a 0–0 gives both clubs a clean sheet.

0
Chorley wins
0
Draws
1
King’s Lynn wins
Goals / meeting
2.00
2 goals in 1 meeting · small sample
Both scored
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 1.5
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 2.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Over 3.5
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
Chorley clean sheets
0%
0 of 1 meeting · small sample
King’s Lynn clean sheets
100%
1 of 1 meeting · small sample
Corners / meeting
–
0 with corner data · small sample
Cards / meeting
–
0 with card data · small sample
  1. King’s Lynn v ChorleySat, 12 Sept 2026 · National League North 2026-272–0HT 1–0

Latest stored form

These are the clubs’ latest stored results across competitions, independent of this fixture’s date.

Home and awayAll matches
Chorley at homeLWDWWW
King’s Lynn awayLWLWLW

Any competition, newest first. The form chips read oldest to newest. C = corners, Y = cards (for and against).

Stored season rate grid

Arithmetic averages of both clubs' stored whole-season rates, with each source sample shown. These aggregates can include results after this fixture.

Home and awayOverall
Chorley at home, King’s Lynn away
  • 60%
    Both teams scored
    League 58%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 0.5 goals
    League 97%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 100%
    Over 1.5 goals
    League 76%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 70%
    Over 2.5 goals
    League 55%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 37%
    Over 3.5 goals
    League 26%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 28%
    Over 4.5 goals
    League 16%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 3.6
    Avg total goals
    League 2.77
    6 + 5 matches
  • 83%
    1st half over 0.5
    League 71%
    6 + 5 matches
  • 28%
    1st half over 1.5
    League 32%
    6 + 5 matches

Stored season context, 2026-27

Season figures include all stored results in this competition-season. Ratings use the latest stored calculation; these sections can include information after this fixture.

Season comparison, 2026-27

Home and awayOverall
Chorley at home, King’s Lynn away
Chorley (home)King’s Lynn (away)
10Position6
WDWWWLast 5, oldest to newestLWLWW
6Played5
2.17Points per match1.80
67%Win %60%
2.33Scored / match2.20
1.50Conceded / match1.20
3.83Avg total goals3.40
100%Both scored20%
0%Clean sheets60%
0%Failed to score20%
–xG for–
–xG against–

Half by half

ChorleyKing’s Lynn
  • 0.671st half scored / match1.00
  • 0.331st half conceded / match0.60
  • 1.672nd half scored / match1.20
  • 1.172nd half conceded / match0.60
  • 33%Leading at half-time80%
  • 67%1st half over 0.5100%
  • 17%1st half over 1.540%
  • 100%2nd half over 0.580%
  • 100%2nd half over 1.540%
  • 33%Scored in both halves60%

Goals, shots, corners and cards

Chorley at home, King’s Lynn away, this season.

Goals

ChorleyKing’s Lynn
  • 2.33Scored / match2.20
  • 1.50Conceded / match1.20
  • 3.83Match total / match3.40
  • 100%Scored 1+80%
  • 83%Scored 2+80%
  • 100%Conceded 1+40%
  • 50%Conceded 2+40%
  • 100%Match over 1.5100%
  • 100%Match over 2.540%
  • 33%Match over 3.540%

Shots and xG

No shot figures stored for these clubs this season.

Corners

No corner figures stored for these clubs this season.

Cards

No card figures stored for these clubs this season.

The table, 2026-27

#ClubPGDPts
4Chester11520
5South Shields12020
6King’s Lynn11619
7Hebburn Town11-318
8Brackley Town12-618
9Spalding United11517
10Chorley11017
11Buxton FC11-116
12Bedford Town11-116
Full table →

Where to watch

We do not store television or streaming listings for National League North matches, so no broadcaster is named here. Your local listings or the competition organiser will have the rights in your country.

Broadcasters by countryOur stored rights cover the World Cup 2026 archive only.

Statistics only, never advice. Not affiliated with any league or club.